Should We Wait and See How Far the U.S. Dollar Will Rise After Its Sharp Surge Following Strong U.S. Employment Data?
07.10.2024
- Japan Economic Sentiment Index
- New Orders in Germany's Manufacturing Sector
Last weekend, the U.S. dollar became the strongest currency immediately following the release of the U.S. September employment report on Friday, the 4th. The report showed that the unemployment rate improved by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month’s 4.2% to 4.1%, and nonfarm payrolls rose significantly from 142,000 in the previous month to 254,000.The USD/JPY pair surged by approximately 3 yen, from 145.919 to 148.987. On the weekly chart, a large bullish engulfing candle has formed, completely enveloping the previous week’s candlestick.
European currencies saw the pound fall against the U.S. dollar, despite the UK’s September Construction PMI—released on the 4th—rising to 57.2 from 53.6 the previous month. The GBP/USD exchange rate fell from 1.3174 to 1.3069.On the hourly chart, the price has moved from above the 20-period moving average (MA) to below it. On the 4-hour chart, the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) is acting as resistance, while on the daily chart, the price is approaching last month’s low.
Today’s schedule includes Japan’s foreign exchange reserves at 8:50, New Zealand’s total reserve assets at 11:00, Thailand’s Consumer Price Index at 12:30, Japan’s Economic Sentiment Index at 14:00, Germany’s new manufacturing orders at 15:00, Germany’sIndustrial Production, and Norway’s Manufacturing Production; at 15:30, Hungary’s Trade Balance; at 16:00, Switzerland’s Foreign Exchange Reserves; at 18:00, Eurozone Retail Sales;23:30: Remarks by Nagel, President of the German Federal Bank; 24:30: U.S. 6-month Treasury bill auction; 26:50: Remarks by Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank.We intend to cautiously monitor the upside potential of the U.S. dollar, which surged on the back of strong U.S. employment data.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
