Will the U.S. CPI Fall to 2.6% as Expected? Market Participants Remain on Guard Against Sharp Price Movements
11.09.2024
- U.S. Consumer Price Index
- U.S. Weekly Crude Oil Inventories
In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the U.S. dollar weakened against the yen. The USD/JPY pair fell from 143.706 to 142.209. It dropped from the +2σ to the -2σ levels on the hourly Bollinger Bands.On the 4-hour chart, the pair has been falling just below the 20-period moving average (MA), and on the daily chart, it has pulled back after touching the 10-period MA. We will wait and see cautiously whether today’s U.S. CPI data will trigger further weakness in the U.S. dollar.
European currencies saw the pound fluctuate against the U.S. dollar following yesterday’s release of the UK’s August employment statistics, which showed the unemployment rate remained unchanged from the previous month’s 4.7%. The GBP/USD pair traded between 1.3048 and 1.3107, with price action straddling the 20-period moving average on the hourly chart.On the 4-hour chart, the 20-period moving average is acting as an upper resistance level, while on the daily chart, the RSI continues to decline after rising above 70.
Today’s economic indicators include remarks by NZ RBNZ Deputy Governor Silk at 6:05, South Korean employment statistics at 8:00, remarks by Australian RBA Deputy Governor Hunter at 9:20, the U.S. presidential candidate debate at 10:00, and at 15:00, the UK’sIndustrial Production, UK Manufacturing Output, UK Trade Balance, and UK GDP at 15:00; the US MBA Mortgage Applications Index at 20:00; Mexico’s Industrial Production at 21:00; the US Consumer Price Index at 21:30; US Weekly Crude Oil Inventories at 23:30;and at 2:00 a.m., a U.S. 10-year Treasury note auction. We should be on the lookout for sharp price movements following the release of the U.S. CPI data, as the market is watching to see if it will fall to 2.6% as expected.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
