Will the market keep a close eye on the resilience of the U.S. dollar, now the weakest currency?
19.08.2024
- Malaysia: Trade Balance
- Japan: Machinery Orders
Last weekend, the U.S. dollar became the weakest currency during U.S. trading hours after the U.S. July housing starts data, released on the 16th, showed a sharp deterioration from the previous month’s 3.4% to a decline of 4.0%. The EUR/USD pair rose from 1.0967 to 1.1034, forming a trend along the 20-period moving average on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, the pair has surged to the +2σ level of the Bollinger Bands.
Despite the fact that the EU’s seasonally adjusted June trade balance, released on the 16th, came in at €17.5 billion—exceeding market expectations of €13.5 billion and up from the previous month’s €12.3 billion—the euro fell against the yen.The EUR/JPY pair fell from 163.853 to 162.277, temporarily breaking below the support level indicated by the 75-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart. Since it has broken below the 20-period MA on the 4-hour chart, traders should watch for a continued decline during European trading hours.
Today’s economic indicators include UK Rightmove house prices at 8:01, Japan’s machinery orders at 8:50, Thailand’s real GDP at 11:30, Malaysia’s trade balance at 13:00,22:15: Remarks by Fed Governor Waller (US), 23:00: US Leading Economic Index, 6:00 the following day: South Korea Consumer Confidence Index, and 7:45: New Zealand Trade Balance. We will carefully assess the resilience of the US dollar, which has become the weakest currency.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
