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Will Market Participants Keep a Close Eye on the U.S. Dollar’s Resilience After It Became the Weakest Currency?

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Will Market Participants Keep a Close Eye on the U.S. Dollar’s Resilience After It Became the Weakest Currency?

19.08.2024

Today's Highlights
  1. Malaysia: Trade Balance
  2. Japan: Machinery Orders

Last weekend, the U.S. dollar became the weakest currency during U.S. trading hours after the U.S. July housing starts data, released on the 16th, showed a sharp deterioration from the previous month’s 3.4% to a decline of 4.0%.The EUR/USD pair rose from 1.0967 to 1.1034. A trend developed along the 20-period moving average on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, the pair surged to the +2σ level of the Bollinger Bands.

European currencies saw the euro fall against the yen, despite the fact that the EU’s June trade balance (seasonally adjusted), released on the 16th, came in at 17.5 billion euros—exceeding market expectations of 13.5 billion euros and up from the previous month’s 12.3 billion euros.The EUR/JPY pair fell from 163.853 to 162.277, temporarily breaking below the support level indicated by the 75-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart. Since it has broken below the 20-period MA on the 4-hour chart, traders should watch for a continued decline during European trading hours.

Today’s economic indicators include the UK LightMove House Price Index at 8:01, Japan’s Machinery Orders at 8:50, Thailand’s Real GDP at 11:30, Malaysia’s Trade Balance at 13:00,22:15: Remarks by Fed Governor Waller (U.S.); 23:00: U.S. Leading Economic Index; 6:00 the following day: South Korea’s Consumer Confidence Index; and 7:45: New Zealand’s Trade Balance. We will carefully assess the resilience of the U.S. dollar, which has become the weakest currency.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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