Market participants are likely to keep a close eye on the downside potential of the U.S. dollar, which has become the weakest currency following the release of the disappointing July U.S. employment report.
05.08.2024
- Germany's Non-Manufacturing PMI
- U.S. PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index)
Last weekend, the U.S. dollar became the weakest currency immediately following the release of the U.S. July employment report on Friday, the 2nd. The report showed that nonfarm payrolls came in at 114,000—well below the market forecast of 175,000—and the unemployment rate worsened by 0.2 percentage points, rising from 4.1% to 4.3%. The USD/JPY exchange rate fell from 149.750 to 146.432.On the daily chart, this marked the fourth consecutive day of decline.
Among European currencies, the pound fell against the yen following the Bank of England’s interest rate decision. The GBP/JPY pair dropped from 190.519 to 187.398. The hourly RSI fell to 25. On the 4-hour chart, the pair is declining after encountering resistance at the 10-period moving average, and on the daily chart, the price has closed below the 200-period simple moving average and the RSI has dropped to 14; therefore, we will be closely monitoring whether a corrective rebound will occur.
Today’s schedule includes: China’s Caixin PMI at 10:45, Indonesia’s real GDP at 13:00, India’s services PMI and Singapore’s retail sales at 14:00, Turkey’s consumer price index and producer price index at 16:00, France’s non-manufacturing PMI at 16:50, and Germany’s non-manufacturing PMI at 16:55,at 5:00 PM, the Eurozone Non-Manufacturing PMI; at 5:30 PM, the UK Non-Manufacturing PMI; at 6:00 PM, the Eurozone Producer Price Index; at 10:45 PM, the US PMI; and at 11:00 PM, the US ISM Non-Manufacturing Index. We will be closely monitoring the downside potential of the US dollar, which has become the weakest currency following the deterioration of the US July employment report.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
