We should watch closely to see if the ECB will cause significant shifts in the euro’s strength or weakness

We should watch closely to see if the ECB will cause significant shifts in the euro’s strength or weakness

18.07.2024

In yesterday’s U.S. trading session, the Canadian dollar was the weakest currency from European to U.S. trading hours. The CAD/JPY pair fell from 115.923 to 113.999, touching the -3σ line of the hourly Bollinger Bands. On the 4-hour chart, the pair’s upside is being capped by the 200-period SMA, and on the daily chart, it has already broken below the 75-period MA support line. We will be watching closely to see if the Canadian dollar continues to weaken and breaks through this month’s low.

European currencies rose against the U.S. dollar after the final reading of the Eurozone’s June Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), released yesterday, remained unchanged from the previous month at 2.5% year-over-year. The euro rose against the dollar from 1.0893 to 1.0948. The rise followed the 20-period moving average on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI has reached 70, indicating overbought conditions, and the daily chart shows a similar reading.

Today’s schedule includes Australian employment figures at 10:30, UK employment figures and Swiss trade balance at 15:00, the ECB policy rate decision and statement at 21:15, US initial jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index at 21:30, and at 21:45, theECB President Lagarde’s press conference, at 11:00 PM the US Leading Economic Index, at 11:30 PM US weekly natural gas inventories, at 2:45 AM remarks by Logan, President of the Dallas Fed, and at 5:00 AM US securities investment data. We will need to pay close attention to price movements following these releases to see if the ECB’s decisions lead to significant shifts in the euro’s strength.

Past Market Reports

1. 17.04.2026New

   Will the market wait and see how much further the U.S. dollar can rise against the yen?

2. 16.04.2026New

   Will the weakening Swiss franc recover? Attention is turning to price movements during European trading hours.

3. 15.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely keeping a close eye on the upside potential of the euro, which has risen against the U.S. dollar

4. 14.04.2026New

   Should we keep an eye on remarks by key figures in the U.S. and try to gauge the direction of currency strength?

5. 13.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely watching for signs of a rebound in the Canadian dollar, which fell against the U.S. dollar following the release of employment figures

6. 10.04.2026

   Will the weakening Swiss franc continue to strengthen against the yen, or should we wait and see?

7. 09.04.2026

   Will the U.S. dollar, which has fallen against the yen, continue its downward slide, or should we wait and see how the market moves?

8. 08.04.2026

   Should we keep an eye on the upside for European currencies that have risen against the U.S. dollar?

9. 07.04.2026

   Market participants may be wary of further downside potential for the U.S. dollar, which has weakened amid concerns over the situation in Iran

10. 06.04.2026

    Investors should be wary of sudden spikes in volatility while major markets are closed