We should keep a close eye on whether the ECB will bring about significant changes in the euro’s strength or weakness.

We should keep a close eye on whether the ECB will bring about significant changes in the euro’s strength or weakness.

18.07.2024

In yesterday’s U.S. trading session, the Canadian dollar was the weakest currency from European to U.S. trading hours. The CAD/JPY pair fell from 115.923 to 113.999, touching the -3σ line on the hourly Bollinger Bands. On the 4-hour chart, the pair is being capped by the 200-period SMA, and on the daily chart, it has already broken below the 75-period MA support line. We will be watching closely to see if the Canadian dollar continues to weaken and breaks through this month’s low.

European currencies rose against the U.S. dollar as the final reading of the Eurozone’s June Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), released yesterday, remained unchanged from the previous month at 2.5% year-over-year. The EUR/USD pair rose from 1.0893 to 1.0948. The rise followed the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI has reached 70, indicating overbought conditions, and the daily chart shows a similar reading.

Today’s schedule includes Australian employment figures at 10:30, UK employment figures and Swiss trade balance at 15:00, the ECB policy rate decision and statement at 21:15, U.S. initial jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index at 21:30, and at 21:45, theECB President Lagarde’s press conference, at 11:00 PM the U.S. Leading Economic Index, at 11:30 PM U.S. weekly natural gas inventories, at 2:45 AM remarks by Logan, President of the Dallas Fed, and at 5:00 AM U.S. securities investment in the U.S. We should pay close attention to price movements following these releases to see if the ECB’s decisions will significantly alter the strength of the euro.