Should we be wary of the Swiss franc's potential to fall further following the decline in the CPI?
05.07.2024
- France: Industrial Production
- Japan Economic Sentiment Index
In the previous day’s U.S. currency trading, with U.S. markets closed for a holiday, the U.S. dollar became the weakest currency during U.S. trading hours. The USD/JPY pair fell from 161.673 to 160.941, dropping below the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, the 20-period MA is acting as resistance, while on the daily chart, the price has fallen from the +2σ line of the Bollinger Bands to just below the 10-period MA.
European currencies fell as the Swiss franc weakened against the yen following yesterday’s release of Switzerland’s June Consumer Price Index (CPI), which showed a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month’s 1.4%. The CHF/JPY pair fell from 179.424 to 178.548, dropping to the 200-period EMA on the hourly chart.On the 4-hour chart, the upper range is gradually narrowing, and on the daily chart, the RSI has begun to pull back from 84.
Today’s schedule includes the Philippine Consumer Price Index at 10:00, Singapore Retail Sales and the Japanese Economic Sentiment Index at 14:00, German Industrial Production at 15:00, French Industrial Production at 15:45, remarks by German Bundesbank President Nagel at 16:00, Eurozone Retail Sales at 18:00,at 6:40 PM, remarks by Williams, President of the New York Fed; at 9:30 PM, Canadian and U.S. employment reports; at 11:00 PM, the Canadian Ivey PMI; and at 2:15 AM, remarks by Lagarde, President of the ECB. We should watch for further downside potential in the Swiss franc, which has fallen due to the decline in the CPI.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
