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Attention Turns to Whether the Franc-Yen Exchange Rate, Which Fell Due to Weak Industrial Production, Will Rebound

Market Report

Attention Turns to Whether the Franc-Yen Exchange Rate, Which Fell Due to Weak Industrial Production, Will Rebound

20.05.2024

Today's Highlights
  1. UK LightMove Housing Prices
  2. Hong Kong Employment Statistics

Last weekend, the U.S. dollar weakened against the pound after the U.S. April Leading Economic Index, released on the 17th, deteriorated to -0.6% from -0.3% the previous month. The GBP/USD pair rose from 1.2645 to 1.2711.It broke above the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart from below. On the 4-hour chart, the price has rebounded as the 20-period MA acts as support, and on the daily chart, it has risen to the +3σ level of the Bollinger Bands; therefore, we will be closely monitoring whether the upward trend continues.

European currencies saw the Swiss franc weaken against the yen after the release of Switzerland’s first-quarter industrial production data, which showed a deterioration from the previous reading of -0.4% to -3.1%. The franc-yen exchange rate fell from 171.815 to 171.177.The price fell within the range of the hourly Bollinger Bands, from +2σ to -2σ. On the 4-hour chart, the price failed to reach a new high and pulled back, so we need to carefully assess whether it will recover during European trading hours.

Today, at 8:01 a.m., the UK’s RightMove House Price Index; at 10:15 a.m., China’s Prime Lending Rate; at 11:30 a.m., Thailand’s Real GDP; at 12:00 p.m., Indonesia’s Current Account Balance; at 1:00 p.m., Malaysia’s Trade Balance;1:30 PM: Japan’s Tertiary Industry Activity Index; 5:20 PM: Taiwan’s current account balance; 5:30 PM: Hong Kong’s employment statistics; 6:00 PM: Remarks by UK BOE Deputy Governor Brovent; 8:30 PM: U.S. Bostic:Atlanta Fed President Bostic’s remarks at 5:20 p.m., U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Waller’s remarks at 10:00 p.m., and U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Jefferson’s remarks at 11:30 p.m. are scheduled. We will be watching for a recovery in the CHF/JPY pair, which fell due to a decline in industrial production.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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