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Attention Turns to Whether the Franc-Yen Exchange Rate, Which Fell Due to Weak Industrial Production, Will Rebound

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Attention Turns to Whether the Franc-Yen Exchange Rate, Which Fell Due to Weak Industrial Production, Will Rebound

20.05.2024

Today's Highlights
  1. UK LightMove Housing Prices
  2. Hong Kong Employment Statistics

Last weekend, the U.S. dollar weakened against the pound after the U.S. April Leading Economic Index, released on the 17th, deteriorated to -0.6% from -0.3% the previous month. The GBP/USD pair rose from 1.2645 to 1.2711.It broke above the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart from below. On the 4-hour chart, the 20-period MA is acting as support, leading to a rebound, and on the daily chart, the price has risen to the +3σ level of the Bollinger Bands, so we will be watching closely to see if the uptrend continues.

European currencies saw the Swiss franc weaken against the yen following the release of Switzerland’s first-quarter industrial production data, which worsened from the previous reading of -0.4% to -3.1%. The franc-yen exchange rate fell from 171.815 to 171.177.The price fell from the +2σ to the -2σ levels on the hourly Bollinger Bands. Since the price failed to reach a new high on the 4-hour chart and has since pulled back, we should exercise caution in assessing whether prices will recover during European trading hours.

Today’s schedule includes the UK’s RightMove House Price Index at 8:01, China’s Prime Lending Rate at 10:15, Thailand’s Real GDP at 11:30, Indonesia’s Current Account Balance at 12:00, Malaysia’s Trade Balance at 13:00,at 1:30 PM, Japan’s Tertiary Industry Activity Index; at 5:20 PM, Taiwan’s current account balance; at 5:30 PM, Hong Kong’s employment statistics; at 6:00 PM, remarks by UK BOE Deputy Governor Brovent; at 8:30 PM, remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Bostic:Atlanta Fed President Bostic’s remarks at 5:20 p.m., U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Waller’s remarks at 10:00 p.m., and U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Jefferson’s remarks at 11:30 p.m. are scheduled. We will be watching for a recovery in the CHF/JPY pair, which fell due to a decline in industrial production.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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