With the unemployment rate continuing to rise, attention is turning to the euro's upside potential

With the unemployment rate continuing to rise, attention is turning to the euro's upside potential

06.05.2024

Last weekend, the U.S. dollar weakened against the yen following the release of the U.S. April employment report on the 3rd, which showed that nonfarm payrolls fell sharply from 303,000 in the previous month to 175,000, while the unemployment rate worsened by 0.1 percentage points from 3.8% to 3.9%. The USD/JPY pair fell from 153.748 to 151.890.The decline followed the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart. Since the pair has broken below the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, we should watch for a continued decline during European trading hours.

European currencies rose against the U.S. dollar after the eurozone unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.5% in the March employment statistics released on the 3rd.The EUR/USD pair rose from 1.0718 to 1.0812. An upward move was observed from the 200-period EMA on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, the price has broken above the 200-period SMA with a real body candle, and on the daily chart, the RSI is rising around the 53 level, so it will be worth watching whether the euro continues to climb.

Today’s schedule includes the China Caixin Services PMI at 10:45, Indonesia’s real GDP at 13:00, India’s Services PMI at 14:00, France’s Services PMI at 16:50, Germany’s Services PMI at 16:55, the Eurozone Services PMI at 17:00, and the EurozoneProducer Price Index, at 8:30 PM German Bundesbank President Nagel’s remarks, at 9:25 PM Swiss SNB President Jordan’s remarks, at 1:50 AM U.S. Richmond Fed President Barkin’s remarks, and at 2:00 AM U.S. New York Fed President Williams’ remarks. With the unemployment rate continuing to rise, I intend to cautiously monitor the upside potential of the euro.