With the unemployment rate continuing to rise, attention is turning to the upside potential of the euro

With the unemployment rate continuing to rise, attention is turning to the upside potential of the euro

06.05.2024

Last weekend, the U.S. dollar weakened against the yen following the release of the U.S. April employment report on the 3rd, which showed that nonfarm payrolls fell sharply from 303,000 in the previous month to 175,000, while the unemployment rate worsened by 0.1 percentage points from 3.8% to 3.9%. The USD/JPY pair fell from 153.748 to 151.890.The decline followed the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart. Since the pair has broken below the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, we should watch for a continued decline during European trading hours.

European currencies rose against the U.S. dollar after the eurozone unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.5% in the March employment statistics released on the 3rd.The EUR/USD pair rose from 1.0718 to 1.0812. An upward move was observed from the 200-period EMA on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, the price has broken above the 200-period SMA with a real body candle, and on the daily chart, the RSI is rising around the 53 level, so it will be worth watching to see if the euro continues to climb.

Today’s schedule includes the China Caixin Services PMI at 10:45, Indonesia’s real GDP at 13:00, India’s Services PMI at 14:00, France’s Services PMI at 16:50, Germany’s Services PMI at 16:55, the Eurozone Services PMI at 17:00, and the EurozoneProducer Price Index, at 8:30 PM German Bundesbank President Nagel’s remarks, at 9:25 PM Swiss SNB President Jordan’s remarks, at 1:50 AM U.S. Richmond Fed President Barkin’s remarks, and at 2:00 AM U.S. New York Fed President Williams’ remarks. With the unemployment rate continuing to rise, I intend to cautiously monitor the upside potential of the euro.

Past Market Reports

1. 17.04.2026New

   Will the market wait and see how much further the U.S. dollar can rise against the yen?

2. 16.04.2026New

   Will the weakening Swiss franc recover? Attention is turning to price movements during European trading hours.

3. 15.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely keeping a close eye on the upside potential of the euro, which has risen against the U.S. dollar

4. 14.04.2026New

   Should we keep an eye on remarks by key figures in the U.S. and try to gauge the direction of currency strength?

5. 13.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely watching for signs of a rebound in the Canadian dollar, which fell against the U.S. dollar following the release of employment figures

6. 10.04.2026

   Will the weakening Swiss franc continue to strengthen against the yen, or should we wait and see?

7. 09.04.2026

   Will the U.S. dollar, which has fallen against the yen, continue its downward slide, or should we wait and see how the market moves?

8. 08.04.2026

   Should we keep an eye on the upside for European currencies that have risen against the U.S. dollar?

9. 07.04.2026

   Market participants may be wary of further downside potential for the U.S. dollar, which has weakened amid concerns over the situation in Iran

10. 06.04.2026

    Investors should be wary of sudden spikes in volatility while major markets are closed