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Should We Be on Guard Against Volatility in the U.S. Dollar Caused by Remarks from Key Figures?

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Should We Be on Guard Against Volatility in the U.S. Dollar Caused by Remarks from Key Figures?

16.04.2024

Today's Highlights
  1. Germany's ZEW Economic Sentiment Index
  2. Europe: Trade Balance

In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the U.S. dollar rose against the yen after the March U.S. retail sales figures released yesterday showed a rise from 0.6% the previous month to 0.7%, while the core index (excluding automobiles) rose from 0.3% to 1.1%.The USD/JPY pair rose from 152.949 to 154.446, with the rally tracking the 10-period moving average (MA) on the 4-hour chart. On the daily chart, the RSI has exceeded 70 and stands at 78, so traders should be wary of volatility caused by comments from key officials during U.S. trading hours.

European currencies rose against the yen as the euro gained ground following yesterday’s release of February’s Eurozone industrial production data, which showed a year-over-year decline narrowing to -6.4% from -6.7% the previous month.The euro/yen pair rose from 162.680 to 164.440, breaking above the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart. Although it briefly dipped below the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, it has since recovered above that level, so we will be watching for further upside potential during European trading hours.

Today, at 10:30, Japan’s existing and new home sales prices; at 11:00, Japan’s retail sales and industrial production; at 13:00, Indonesia’s trade balance; at 15:00, Germany’sWholesale Price Index and UK Employment Statistics; at 18:00, the German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index and Eurozone Trade Balance; at 19:00, Israel’s Real GDP; at 21:30, Canada’s Consumer Price Index and U.S. Housing Starts; at 22:15, U.S. Industrial Production;at 23:30, remarks by Nagel, President of the German Bundesbank; at 25:30, remarks by Williams, President of the New York Fed; at 26:00, remarks by Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England; and at 26:15, remarks by Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve.Be sure to pay close attention to potential volatility in the U.S. dollar caused by these key speeches.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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