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Should We Keep an Eye on the Upside Potential of the U.S. Dollar, Which Is Surging on the Back of Strong U.S. Employment Data?

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Should We Keep an Eye on the Upside Potential of the U.S. Dollar, Which Is Surging on the Back of Strong U.S. Employment Data?

08.04.2024

Today's Highlights
  1. Germany's Trade Balance
  2. Malaysia: Industrial Production

Last weekend, the U.S. dollar rose following the release of the U.S. March employment report on the 5th, which showed that the unemployment rate rose to 6.1% from 5.8% the previous month, while nonfarm payrolls increased to 303,000 from 275,000 the previous month.The EUR/USD pair fell from 1.0847 to 1.0791, breaking below the 20-period moving average (MA) on the 4-hour chart. Since it has fallen below the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) support line on the daily chart, traders should watch for potential upside momentum in the U.S. dollar during European trading hours.

European currencies rose, with the euro strengthening against the yen after the release of February’s European retail sales data last weekend showed a year-over-year decline of 0.7%, an improvement from the previous month’s 1.0% decline.The euro/yen pair rose from 163.474 to 164.437, breaking above the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, the 75-period MA is acting as support, and the pair is rising again; therefore, it will be worth watching whether the euro strengthens during U.S. trading hours.

Today’s economic indicators include Japan’s balance of payments at 8:50, Malaysia’s industrial production at 13:00, Japan’s Economic Watchers Survey at 14:00, Switzerland’s employment statistics at 14:45, Germany’sIndustrial Production and Germany’s Trade Balance, at 16:00: Turkey’s Industrial Production and the Philippines’ BSP Overnight Lending Rate, at 22:00: Israel’s Policy Rate,at 24:15, remarks by SNB Governor Jordan of Switzerland; at 24:30, remarks by MPC Member Breeden of the UK; and at 8:00 the following day, remarks by Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.We will carefully monitor the upside potential of the U.S. dollar, which has been surging on the back of strong U.S. employment data.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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