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With the yen on a downward trend and the USD/JPY pair hitting new highs this year, should we wait and see how much further it can rise?

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With the yen on a downward trend and the USD/JPY pair hitting new highs this year, should we wait and see how much further it can rise?

27.03.2024

Today's Highlights
  1. Australia's Consumer Price Index
  2. U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index

In U.S. currency trading yesterday, the U.S. dollar rose against the yen despite the fact that the Richmond Fed’s March Manufacturing Index, released yesterday, deteriorated from -5 in the previous month to -11. With U.S. mid-term bond yields holding firm, the USD/JPY pair rose from 151.205 to 151.609.During today’s Asian trading session, the pair touched 1551.972. As today’s rise pushed USD/JPY to a new high for the year, we will be watching price movements closely during U.S. trading hours.

European currencies saw the euro hold steady against the yen after Germany’s April GfK Consumer Confidence Index, released yesterday, showed a slight improvement to -27.4 from -29.0 the previous month.The EUR/JPY pair traded between 163.907 and 167.420, with price action centered around the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, the EUR/JPY is finding support at the 20-period MA, so we will monitor the potential for an upward move during European trading hours.

Today, the Australian Consumer Price Index will be released at 9:30, the French Consumer Confidence Index at 16:45, the Swedish policy rate and statement at 17:30, the Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index and Eurozone Economic Sentiment Index at 19:00, the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index at 20:00,at 9:00 PM, Mexico’s employment report and trade balance; at 9:00 PM, South Africa’s policy rate and statement; at 11:30 PM, U.S. weekly crude oil inventories; at 1:00 AM, Russia’s industrial production; and at 7:00 AM the following day, remarks by Fed Governor Waller.We will cautiously monitor the upside potential for USD/JPY, which has been trending lower against the yen and has hit a new high for the year.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management with a particular focus on foreign exchange markets, and he also has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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