With the yen weakening and the USD/JPY pair hitting new highs this year, should we wait and see how much further it can rise?

With the yen weakening and the USD/JPY pair hitting new highs this year, should we wait and see how much further it can rise?

27.03.2024

In yesterday’s U.S. currency trading, the U.S. dollar rose against the yen despite the March Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index—released yesterday—deteriorating from -5 in the previous month to -11. With U.S. mid-term bond yields holding firm, the USD/JPY pair rose from 151.205 to 151.609. During today’s Asian trading session, it touched 151.972.Today’s rise pushed USD/JPY to a new high for the year, so we will be watching price movements closely during U.S. trading hours.

European currencies held firm against the yen as the German GfK Consumer Confidence Index for April, released yesterday, showed a slight improvement to -27.4 from -29.0 the previous month.EUR/JPY traded between 163.907 and 167.420, fluctuating around the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, EUR/JPY is finding support at the 20-period MA, so we will monitor the potential for an upward move during European trading hours.

Today’s schedule includes the Australian Consumer Price Index at 9:30, the French Consumer Confidence Index at 16:45, the Swedish Central Bank’s policy rate and statement at 17:30, the Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index and Business Climate Index at 19:00, the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index at 20:00, and Mexico’s employment statistics and trade balance at 21:00.at 9:00 PM South Africa’s policy rate and statement, at 11:30 PM U.S. weekly crude oil inventories, at 1:00 AM Russia’s industrial production, and at 7:00 AM the following day, remarks by Fed Governor Waller are scheduled. With the yen weakening and USD/JPY hitting new highs for the year, we will carefully monitor the upside potential.