Should We Be Wary of Further Declines in the Euro Against the U.S. Dollar?

Should We Be Wary of Further Declines in the Euro Against the U.S. Dollar?

28.02.2024

In yesterday’s U.S. currency trading, the U.S. dollar fell against the yen after the U.S. January durable goods orders—released yesterday—showed a deterioration in the core month-over-month figure, dropping from the previous reading of 0.5% to -0.3%. The USD/JPY pair fell from 150.708 to 150.072.During today’s Asian trading session, we are seeing a slight rebound. We will assess whether the U.S. dollar will continue to fall against the yen by monitoring today’s economic data releases.

European currencies saw the euro fall slightly against the U.S. dollar, despite the German GfK Consumer Confidence Index for March—released yesterday—improving to -29.0 from -29.7 the previous month. The euro/dollar pair fell from 1.0865 to 1.0832.During today’s Asian trading session, the pair has also broken below the 75-period moving average on the hourly chart and is testing lower levels. We will closely monitor whether the euro shows signs of recovery during U.S. trading hours.

Today, the Australian Consumer Price Index will be released at 9:30, followed by the RBNZ policy rate and statement at 10:00, the Japanese Economic Sentiment Index at 14:00, and the Turkish trade balance at 16:00,at 19:00, the Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index and Eurozone Economic Sentiment; at 21:00, the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index; at 22:30, Canada’s Current Account Balance, U.S. Real GDP, and U.S. Wholesale Inventories; at 24:30, U.S. Weekly Crude Oil Inventories; and at 25:00, Russia’sIndustrial Production, and at 26:00, remarks by U.S. Atlanta Fed President Bostic are scheduled. We will carefully monitor the downside potential for the euro, which is currently falling against the U.S. dollar.