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Will the euro, which has risen against the yen, pull back? Keep an eye on its direction.

Market Report

Will the euro, which has risen against the yen, pull back? Keep an eye on its direction.

31.01.2024

Today's Highlights
  1. U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index
  2. UK Nationwide Home Prices

The U.S. dollar weakened against the euro yesterday ahead of today’s FOMC meeting. The EUR/USD pair rose from 1.0811 to 1.0855.Price action lacked direction, trading just below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) on the daily chart. On the higher-time-frame weekly chart, the pair is positioned just below the 20-day moving average (MA), and the RSI is in a downtrend just shy of 70; therefore, we should remain cautious as to whether the U.S. dollar will regain strength during U.S. trading hours.

European currencies saw the euro rise slightly against the yen after the release of the EU’s fourth-quarter real GDP figures yesterday, which showed a quarter-on-quarter reading of 0.0%, up from the previous quarter’s -0.1%.The EUR/JPY pair rose from 159.216 to 160.330 but pulled back after touching the 200 EMA on the hourly chart. From a technical perspective, the EUR/JPY pair continues to trend gently lower along the 20 MA on the 4-hour chart, so traders should watch for potential pullbacks during European trading hours.

Today, at 4:00 p.m., the UK Nationwide House Price Index, Germany’s Import Price Index, Germany’s Retail Sales, and Turkey’s Trade Balance will be released; at 4:30 p.m., Switzerland’s Retail Sales;at 4:45 PM, France’s Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index; at 9:00 PM, the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index; at 10:00 PM, Germany’s Consumer Price Index; at 10:15 PM, the U.S. ADP National Employment Report; at 10:30 PM, Canada’s GDP;U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index at 23:45, U.S. weekly crude oil inventories at 24:30, U.S. FOMC policy rate decision and statement at 28:00, and a press conference by Fed Chair Powell at 28:30.We’ll be watching closely to see if the euro, which has risen against the yen, will pull back.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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