Will the euro, which has risen against the yen, fall back? Keep an eye on the direction of the market.
31.01.2024
- U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index
- UK Nationwide House Prices
The U.S. dollar weakened against the euro yesterday ahead of today’s FOMC meeting. The EUR/USD pair rose from 1.0811 to 1.0855. Price action lacked direction, hovering just below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) on the daily chart. On the weekly chart, the pair is positioned just below the 20-day moving average (MA), and the RSI is in a downtrend just shy of 70. Therefore, we should remain vigilant regarding whether the U.S. dollar will regain strength during U.S. trading hours.
European currencies saw the euro rise slightly against the yen after the release of the EU’s fourth-quarter real GDP figures yesterday, which showed a quarter-on-quarter change of 0.0%, up from the previous quarter’s -0.1%.The EUR/JPY pair rose from 159.216 to 160.330 but pulled back after touching the 200-period EMA on the hourly chart. Technically, the EUR/JPY pair continues to trend gently lower along the 20-period MA on the 4-hour chart, so traders should watch for potential pullbacks during European trading hours.
Today’s schedule includes UK Nationwide House Price Index, German Import Price Index, German Retail Sales, and Turkish Trade Balance at 4:00 PM; Swiss Retail Sales at 4:30 PM; French Consumer Price Index and French Producer Price Index at 4:45 PM; US MBA Mortgage Applications at 9:00 PM; and GermanCPI, at 10:15 PM the US ADP National Employment Report, at 10:30 PM Canada’s GDP, at 11:45 PM the US Chicago PMI, at 12:30 AM US weekly crude oil inventories, at 4:00 AM the FOMC policy rate decision and statement, and at 4:30 AM a press conference by Fed Chair Powell.We will be watching closely to see if the euro, which has risen against the yen, will reverse course.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
