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Caution Advised Regarding the Downside Potential of GBP/JPY, Which Is Falling Amid a Strong Yen

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Caution Advised Regarding the Downside Potential of GBP/JPY, Which Is Falling Amid a Strong Yen

21.12.2023

Today's Highlights
  1. Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions Index
  2. CBI Distribution Transaction Survey

In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the U.S. dollar fell slightly against the yen after the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index, released yesterday, deteriorated to -1.5% from 7.4% the previous week.The USD/JPY pair fell slightly from 144.084 to 143.250. The pair has continued to trend lower during today’s Asian trading session, having already dropped to 142.795. Since Europe and the U.S. will be in Christmas mode from the weekend through the beginning of next week, traders should remain cautious about price movements ahead of the long holiday break.

European currencies saw the pound fall sharply against the yen after the UK’s November Consumer Price Index, released yesterday, showed the year-over-year core rate declining to 5.1% from 5.7% the previous month. The GBP/JPY pair fell by about 2 yen, from 183.332 to 181.265.The pair rebounded after touching the 20-day moving average on the daily chart. The yen has continued to strengthen during today’s Asian trading session, with the pair falling to 180.461. We will monitor the situation carefully to see if the pound will continue to weaken as the yen strengthens further.

Today’s schedule includes Hong Kong’s current account balance at 17:30, the UK’s CBI Retail Trade Survey at 20:00, the Turkish Central Bank’s (TCMB) policy rate announcement and statement at 20:00, Canada’s retail sales at 22:30, U.S. initial jobless claims, U.S. third-quarter GDP,U.S. personal consumption, the U.S. Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index at 24:00, U.S. weekly natural gas inventories at 24:30, and the U.S. Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index at 25:00.We should remain highly vigilant regarding the downside potential for GBP/JPY, which is declining amid a strengthening yen.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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All eyes are on whether currency strength and weakness will become clear before the start of the Christmas holidays in Europe and the U.S.
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