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Despite the Dollar Index’s Recovery, Market Participants Are Watching the U.S. Dollar’s Direction as Upside Pressure Persists

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Despite the Dollar Index’s Recovery, Market Participants Are Watching the U.S. Dollar’s Direction as Upside Pressure Persists

07.12.2023

Today's Highlights
  1. Germany: Industrial Production
  2. U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims

In U.S. currency trading the previous day, although the Dollar Index recovered to 104.1, the U.S. dollar traded in a seesaw pattern against the yen. USD/JPY remained range-bound between 148.886 and 147.492, with a battle unfolding around the 20-period moving average on the hourly chart.During today’s Asian trading session, downward pressure has prevailed on USD/JPY, pushing the pair down to 146.704. On the daily chart, the 75-day moving average is acting as resistance, and with the RSI also trending downward, traders should keep a close eye on price movements during U.S. trading hours.

Despite the fact that the EU’s October retail sales figures, released yesterday, showed an improvement year-over-year—from a 2.9% decline the previous month to a 1.2% decline—the euro fell against the yen for the ninth consecutive day.From a technical perspective, the euro/yen pair has repeatedly broken well below the 75-day moving average on the daily chart, and the daily RSI continues its downward trend after peaking above 70. We will be watching closely to see if the euro’s decline continues unabated during European trading hours.

Today, at 15:45, Swiss employment figures; at 16:00, German industrial production and UK Halifax house prices; at 16:45, French trade balance; at 17:00, Czech construction output; at 17:30, Hong Kong foreign exchange reserves;at 19:00, the Eurozone’s third-quarter GDP; at 21:00, Mexico’s Consumer Price Index; at 21:30, the U.S. Challenger layoff forecast; at 22:30, U.S. initial jobless claims and Canadian housing permits;at 24:00: U.S. Wholesale Inventories; at 29:00: U.S. Consumer Credit Balances; and at 6:45 the following day: New Zealand Q3 Manufacturing Sales. We want to carefully assess the direction of the U.S. dollar, which is showing signs of recovery in the Dollar Index but faces resistance at higher levels.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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