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Should We Wait and See Where the Euro Is Headed Now That Its Streak of Gains Has Paused?

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Should We Wait and See Which Way the Euro Will Go Now That Its Streak of Gains Has Paused?

17.11.2023

Today's Highlights
  1. Switzerland: Industrial Production
  2. Canada: International Securities Trading Volume

In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the U.S. dollar weakened significantly against the yen, even though the U.S. Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index for November—released yesterday—came in at -5.9, better than the market forecast of -11.5.The USD/JPY pair fell from 151.425 to 150.287, a move that offset the rebound seen the day before yesterday. From a technical perspective, while USD/JPY remains above its 20-day moving average (MA), the RSI is showing signs of turning downward, so caution is warranted regarding price movements during U.S. trading hours.

Regarding European currencies, ECB President Lagarde stated yesterday that “if European banks are forced to sell the bonds they hold to raise funds, they could suffer significant losses.” As a result, the euro fell against the yen.The euro/yen pair fell from 164.302 to 163.254. The decline halted just below the 20-period moving average (MA) on the 4-hour chart. However, since the euro/yen pair continues to follow an uptrend along the 10-period MA on the daily chart, traders should pay close attention to economic data releases during European trading hours.

Today’s schedule includes UK retail sales and Sweden’s unemployment rate at 16:00, Swiss industrial production at 16:30, remarks by ECB President Lagarde at 17:30, the EU current account balance at 18:00,at 7:00 PM, the Eurozone Consumer Price Index; at 10:00 PM, remarks by German Bundesbank President Nagel; at 10:10 PM, remarks by UK BOE Deputy Governor Ramsden; at 10:15 PM, remarks by a UKMPC Member Green’s remarks at 22:10, Canada’s International Securities Turnover, U.S. Housing Starts, and Canada’s Industrial Production at 22:30, and U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Bar’s remarks at 22:45. I intend to carefully monitor the direction of the euro, as its recent streak of gains has paused.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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