Will the yen strengthen again due to end-of-month factors? Keep a close eye on whether cross-yen pairs will decline.
30.10.2023
- Germany's Consumer Price Index
- UK Consumer Credit Balances
Last weekend, the U.S. dollar weakened as expectations for an interest rate hike at this week’s FOMC meeting on November 1 receded, with the majority of analysts now expecting the Fed to hold rates steady. The euro rose against the dollar from 1.0535 to 1.0597, avoiding a decline toward this month’s low.The monthly chart, which will be finalized this week, shows a doji candle, and with upward pressure still evident in some areas, it will be worth watching whether the euro can stage a comeback heading into the final day of October.
Among European currencies, the pound fell against the yen. GBP/JPY dropped by just under 150 pips from 182.501 to 181.039, returning to the lower boundary of its daily range.Technically, GBP/JPY formed a bearish candle with an upper shadow on the weekly chart, and the weekly RSI has entered a downtrend after moving above 70. We will need to carefully monitor the situation while assessing end-of-month factors to determine whether the pound will continue to weaken against the yen and face resistance at higher levels.
Today, at 3:00 PM, German retail sales and the German import price index, as well as South African money supply data, are scheduled to be released. At 5:00 PM, the Swiss KOF Leading Indicator will be released, followed by German Q3 GDP at 6:00 PM, UK consumer credit balances and UK money supply at 6:30 PM, and at 7:00 PM, the EurozoneEconomic Sentiment Index, and Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index; at 10:00 PM, German CPI; and at 10:30 PM, the U.S. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index. We will be closely monitoring whether end-of-month factors will reignite yen strength and whether cross-yen pairs will decline.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
