Should We Be Wary of Further Downside Potential in the AUD/USD Pair, Which Has Formed a Three-Peak Pattern?
06.10.2023
- New Orders in Germany's Manufacturing Sector
- U.S. Employment Report
In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the U.S. dollar fell against the euro despite the fact that the number of new U.S. unemployment insurance claims, released yesterday, was revised downward from the market forecast of 209,000 to 207,000.The EUR/USD pair rebounded from 1.0500 to 1.0550 and broke above the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) on the hourly chart. Since the weekly candle, which closes today, is a bearish candle with a lower wick, we will be closely monitoring whether today’s U.S. employment report causes the U.S. dollar to weaken.
European currencies saw the pound fall against the Australian dollar after the UK’s September Construction PMI, released yesterday, came in significantly lower than the previous month’s 50.8 and fell below market expectations of 50.1 to 45.0.The GBP/AUD pair fell from 1.9197 to 1.9069, forming a triple top pattern on the hourly chart. On the daily chart, the 20-day moving average (MA) is acting as a solid resistance level, and given the decline over the past two days, traders should remain highly vigilant regarding price movements during European trading hours.
Today’s schedule includes Swiss employment figures at 14:45, UK Halifax house prices, German new manufacturing orders, South African total foreign exchange reserves, and Norwegian manufacturing output at 15:00; Hungarian industrial production at 15:30; and Frenchtrade balance and current account balance, at 16:00 Swiss foreign exchange reserves, at 21:30 U.S. and Canadian employment reports, at 25:00 remarks by Fed Governor Waller, and at 28:00 U.S. consumer credit balances.We should remain highly vigilant regarding the downside potential of the GBP/AUD pair, which has taken on the appearance of a triple top.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
