Caution Advised as the Euro's Uptrend Stalls and Resistance Remains High
04.10.2023
- U.S. ADP Employment Figures
- Eurozone Producer Price Index
The U.S. dollar emerged as the strongest currency early in the U.S. trading session yesterday. The euro/dollar pair edged lower amid choppy trading, falling from 1.0493 to 1.0448 and hitting a new low.From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair continues its downtrend along the 10-day moving average (MA) on the daily chart. On the higher-timeframe weekly chart, the RSI has not yet reached the oversold level of 30 and is holding a buffer around 34; therefore, we will need to closely monitor whether the decline continues.
Among European currencies, the euro—which is awaiting remarks today from ECB President Lagarde—temporarily fell against the yen. The euro/yen pair dropped by about 2.6 yen, from 157.216 to 154.535.It briefly dipped below the support line of the weekly 20-day moving average (MA). However, the EUR/JPY subsequently recovered to 156.192, near the midpoint. Furthermore, it remains above the weekly 20-day MA. Therefore, we will carefully monitor the euro’s price movements during European trading hours.
Today’s schedule includes the French Services PMI at 16:50, the German Services PMI at 16:55, the Eurozone Services PMI and remarks by ECB President Lagarde at 17:00, the UK Services PMI at 17:30, and at 18:00, the EurozoneProducer Price Index and Eurozone Retail Sales, at 20:00 the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index, at 21:15 the U.S. ADP Employment Report, at 22:45 the U.S. Services PMI,23:00: U.S. Manufacturing Orders, U.S. Durable Goods Orders, U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI; 23:25: Remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Bowman; 23:30: U.S. Weekly Crude Oil Inventories.We will carefully monitor the euro’s movements, as its rebound has not held and it continues to face resistance at higher levels.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
