With the US dollar’s strength taking a breather, will currency dynamics shift, or should we wait and see?
29.09.2023
- Exclusive: Employment Statistics
- Canada's GDP
In the previous day’s U.S. currency trading, the dollar paused and weakened after Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expressed a dovish view, stating that “overemphasizing the classic relationship between inflation and unemployment could pose risks.” The USD/JPY pair fell from 149.620 to 149.138. While it has held above the key 149-yen level, resistance at higher levels has grown.As today is the last day of the month, we need to remain vigilant regarding the possibility of a correction in the U.S. dollar.
Despite the release of Germany’s preliminary September CPI data yesterday showing a year-over-year decline from 6.1% in the previous month to 4.5%, the euro rose against both the yen and the U.S. dollar. The euro/yen pair rose from 156.708 to 157.877. During today’s Asian trading session, the pair continues to move higher. We will need to assess carefully whether the euro will maintain its strength against the yen, leading to a weaker yen.
Today, at 3:00 PM: UK current account balance and GDP; Germany’s import price index and retail sales; South Africa’s money supply; at 3:45 PM: France’s producer price index and consumer price index; at 4:00 PM: Switzerland’s KOF Leading Index; at 4:40 PM: remarks by ECB President Lagarde; at 4:55 PM: Germany’semployment data, at 6:00 PM: the Eurozone Consumer Price Index, at 9:30 PM: Canada’s GDP, U.S. personal income, and U.S. wholesale inventories, at 10:45 PM: the U.S. Chicago PMI, and at 11:00 PM: the U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. We will carefully monitor whether the current stability in currency strength—following a pause in the U.S. dollar’s rise—will shift.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
