Should we keep a close eye on the upside potential of the U.S. dollar, which is rising despite concerns over a pause in interest rate hikes?
27.09.2023
- Rice and Durable Goods Orders
- U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index
In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the dollar fluctuated against the yen despite the fact that the U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for July, released yesterday, improved to +0.10% from -1.17% the previous month. The USD/JPY pair traded between 148.703 and 149.187. Although it briefly broke above the key 149-yen level, it did not hold that position for long and fell back.Some market participants believe the Fed has already entered a phase of pausing interest rate hikes, so it is advisable to exercise caution when assessing whether the dollar will rise toward the end of the month.
European currencies saw the pound weaken during U.S. trading hours, falling against both the yen and the U.S. dollar. GBP/JPY fell from 181.812 to 181.125. It is currently hovering just above the 75-day moving average (MA) on the daily chart. Since it has already broken below the 10-day MA on the higher-timeframe weekly chart, we will be closely monitoring whether the pound’s decline will continue toward the 20-day MA on the weekly chart, around 179.660.
Today’s schedule includes the German GfK Consumer Confidence Index at 3:00 PM, the French Consumer Confidence Index at 3:45 PM, Thailand’s policy rate at 4:00 PM, the Eurozone Money Supply and the Swiss Investor Confidence Index at 5:00 PM, the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index at 8:00 PM, Mexico’s trade balance at 9:00 PM, and U.S. Kashkari:Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari’s remarks, at 9:30 PM the U.S. Durable Goods Orders, at 11:30 PM U.S. Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, at 1:00 AM Russian Industrial Production, and at 2:00 AM the U.S. 5-Year Treasury Auction. We should pay close attention to the upside potential of the U.S. dollar, which is rising despite concerns over a pause in interest rate hikes.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
