Should We Keep a Close Eye on the U.S. Dollar’s Upside, Despite Concerns Over a Pause in Interest Rate Hikes?
27.09.2023
- U.S. Durable Goods Orders
- U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index
In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the U.S. dollar traded in a narrow range against the yen, despite the fact that the U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for July—released yesterday—improved to +0.10% from the previous month’s -1.17%.The USD/JPY pair traded between 148.703 and 149.187. Although it briefly broke above the key 149-yen level, it did not hold that level for long and fell back. Some market participants believe the Fed has already entered a phase of pausing interest rate hikes, so caution is warranted in assessing whether the U.S. dollar will rise toward the end of the month.
Among European currencies, the pound weakened during U.S. trading hours, falling against both the yen and the U.S. dollar. The GBP/JPY pair fell from 181.812 to 181.125.It is hovering just above the 75-day moving average (MA) on the daily chart. Since the price has already broken below the 10-day MA on the higher-timeframe weekly chart, we will be closely monitoring whether the pound’s decline will continue toward the 20-day MA on the weekly chart, around 179.660.
Today, the German GfK Consumer Confidence Index will be released at 3:00 p.m., the French Consumer Confidence Index at 3:45 p.m., and Thailand’s policy interest rate at 4:00 p.m.at 5:00 PM, the Eurozone Money Supply and the Swiss Investor Confidence Index; at 8:00 PM, the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index; at 9:00 PM, Mexico’s Trade Balance and remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Kashkari;President of the Minneapolis Fed, at 9:30 PM: U.S. Durable Goods Orders, at 11:30 PM: U.S. Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, at 1:00 AM: Russian Industrial Production, and at 2:00 AM: U.S. 5-Year Treasury Auction.We should pay close attention to the upside potential of the U.S. dollar, which is rising despite concerns over a pause in interest rate hikes.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
