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Should We Be Wary of Resistance on the Swiss Franc?

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Should We Be Wary of Resistance on the Swiss Franc?

19.09.2023

Today's Highlights
  1. European Consumer Price Index
  2. Switzerland: Trade Balance

In yesterday’s U.S. currency trading, the U.S. dollar fell against the euro ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting. The EUR/USD pair rose from 1.0654 to 1.0697, breaking above the 20-period moving average on the 4-hour chart with a real body candle.On the weekly chart, the pair has rebounded off the 1.0625 support level, suggesting a potential upward trend for the time being. However, caution is warranted, as a break below the 1.0625 support level during tomorrow’s FOMC meeting could signal a shift in the trend.

Among European currencies, the Swiss franc fell against the yen ahead of today’s trade balance release. The CHF/JPY pair fell from 164.911 to 164.311. It has been trading below the 20-day moving average (MA) for the past week or so.On the weekly chart, the pair continues to move along the +2σ line of the Bollinger Bands, and divergence is observed as the RSI has exceeded 70, a level indicating overbought conditions. With the BOJ meeting coming up this weekend, we should remain vigilant to see if the franc will continue to weaken against the yen.

Today’s schedule includes: Switzerland’s trade balance at 15:00, the Eurozone’s current account balance at 17:00, Hong Kong’s unemployment rate at 17:30, the Eurozone’s consumer price index at 18:00, Israel’s GDP at 19:00, Canada’s consumer price index at 21:30,U.S. housing starts and building permits, the U.S. 20-year Treasury auction at 26:00, remarks by BOC Deputy Governor Kozicki at 26:45, and New Zealand’s second-quarter current account balance at 7:45 the following day.We should remain highly vigilant regarding the resistance facing the Swiss franc.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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