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Should We Be Wary of the Direction of the U.S. Dollar, Which Is Falling Due to Weaker-Than-Expected Economic Data?

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Should We Be Wary of the Direction of the U.S. Dollar, Which Is Falling Due to Weaker-Than-Expected Economic Data?

30.08.2023

Today's Highlights
  1. Swiss KOF Leading Index
  2. Germany's Consumer Price Index

In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the U.S. dollar temporarily rose against the euro after the U.S. second-quarter housing price index, released yesterday, improved to 1.7% from 0.5% the previous month. The EUR/USD pair fell from 1.0838 to 1.0782.It broke significantly below the 20-period moving average on the hourly chart. However, subsequent economic data caused the U.S. dollar to weaken, and long-term U.S. Treasury yields also declined. In the blink of an eye, the pair rose back to yesterday’s high of 1.0838. It eventually rebounded to 1.0891. We will be watching closely to see if the euro continues to rise during today’s European trading session.

European currencies rose against the Japanese yen as the yen weakened, even though Germany’s September GfK Consumer Confidence Index, released yesterday, came in at -25.5—below the market forecast of -24.6.The EUR/JPY pair rose from 158.238 to 159.061. The uptrend continues, with the 20-period moving average on the 4-hour chart providing support at lower levels. We will be watching closely to see if the euro maintains its strength during U.S. trading hours.

Today, the Swiss KOF Leading Index is scheduled for 16:00, UK consumer credit balances and money supply at 17:30, the Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index at 18:00, the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index at 20:00, and the GermanConsumer Price Index, at 21:15 the U.S. ADP Employment Report, at 21:30 U.S. Wholesale Inventories, U.S. Q2 GDP, and the U.S. GDP Core Deflator, at 23:00 the U.S. Existing Home Sales Index, and at 23:30 U.S. Weekly Crude Oil Inventories.We must remain highly vigilant regarding the direction of the U.S. dollar, which is currently falling due to weaker-than-expected economic data.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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