Should we keep a close eye on the direction of cross-yen pairs, which have shifted from a weak yen to a strong yen?
18.08.2023
- U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
- Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index
In yesterday’s U.S. currency trading, the dollar’s upside was capped despite the U.S. July Leading Economic Index—released yesterday—improving to -0.4% from -0.7% the previous month. The EUR/USD pair fluctuated between 1.0856 and 1.0917, trading above and below the 20-period moving average on the hourly chart.During today’s Asian session, price action has continued to fluctuate around the 20-period moving average, resulting in a directionless market. We will wait and see if the US dollar falls following the release of economic indicators during the European session.
European currencies fell against the yen despite the fact that the seasonally adjusted EU trade balance for June, released yesterday, improved from a deficit of €900 million in the previous month to a surplus of €12.5 billion. The euro/yen exchange rate dropped by about 1 yen, from 159.297 to 158.267. It continues to decline during today’s Asian trading session. We should keep an eye on the euro’s downward trend to see if the rebound from the yen’s weakness during the Obon holiday period will continue.
Today’s schedule includes UK retail sales, Norway’s Q2 GDP, and Sweden’s capacity utilization at 15:00 Asia time; Swiss industrial production at 15:30; Thailand’s foreign exchange reserves at 16:30 Europe time; the Eurozone consumer price index at 18:00; India’s foreign exchange reserves at 20:30;and at 9:00 PM, Mexico’s retail sales. During U.S. trading hours, at 9:30 PM, Canada’s industrial production and raw materials price index are scheduled. We will be closely monitoring the direction of cross-yen pairs, which have shifted from a weak yen to a strong yen.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
