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Will the Euro/USD, which is facing resistance on the upside, extend its decline? All eyes are on the outcome of the FOMC meeting.

Market Report

Will the Euro/USD, which is facing resistance on the upside, extend its decline? All eyes are on the outcome of the FOMC meeting.

26.07.2023

Today's Highlights
  1. U.S. FOMC Policy Rate and Statement Announcement
  2. U.S. New Home Sales

In the previous day’s U.S. currency trading, the U.S. dollar strengthened against the euro after the Conference Board’s July Consumer Confidence Index, released during U.S. trading hours, rose to 117.0 from the previous reading of 109.7. The EUR/USD pair fell from 1.1086 to 1.1020.The 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart acted as resistance, and the downtrend continued. However, on the higher-time-frame 4-hour chart, support from the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA) and simple moving average (SMA) lies just below the current price, so we should exercise caution in determining whether the pair will break below these support levels as U.S. trading hours approach.

Among European currencies, the pound saw a back-and-forth movement against the yen. GBP/JPY fluctuated between 181.147 and 182.008, trading straddling the 20-period moving average on the hourly chart and lacking a clear direction.During today’s Asian session, although the pair is trading above the 20-period moving average on the hourly chart, it remains range-bound within a 20-pip range. Until the FOMC meeting concludes, it seems prudent to adopt a wait-and-see approach regarding the direction of the yen crosses.

Today, the Japan Leading Economic Index is scheduled for 14:00, Sweden’s trade balance for 15:00, France’s consumer confidence index for 15:45, Switzerland’s investor confidence index for 17:00, the U.S. MBA mortgage applications index for 20:00,at 11:00 PM, U.S. New Home Sales; at 11:30 PM, U.S. Weekly Crude Oil Inventories; at 3:00 AM, the U.S. FOMC policy rate decision and statement; and at 3:30 AM, a press conference by Fed Chair Powell.With the euro/dollar pair facing resistance on the upside, we’ll be watching closely to see if it extends its decline following the FOMC announcement.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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With the ECB meeting just two days away, investors may be wary of how much further the euro could fall

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Will the market wait and see how the euro moves following the ECB’s policy rate announcement?
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