All eyes are on whether ECB President Lagarde’s remarks will move the euro
17.07.2023
- Remarks by ECB President Lagarde
- U.S. New York Fed Manufacturing Index
In the U.S. currency market last weekend, the dollar’s weakness, which had persisted for several days, took a breather, and as the dollar emerged as the strongest currency, it traded in a tight range against the euro.The EUR/USD pair traded in a very narrow range between 1.1204 and 1.1244, lacking any clear direction. However, while the pair remains above the 10-period moving average on the 4-hour chart, the daily RSI has exceeded 70—the overbought threshold—and the weekly RSI has also touched 70, so we should remain cautious of a corrective decline in the EUR/USD pair.
European currencies saw the GBP/JPY pair rise, partly due to a general rebound in cross-yen pairs. The GBP/JPY pair climbed by about 2 yen, from 180.211 to 182.280, recovering to the 200-period SMA on the hourly chart. On the daily chart, the price has broken above the 20-period MA with a real body, and the daily RSI is also showing signs of a rebound, so we will be watching the pace of the pound’s rise during European trading hours.
Today’s schedule includes Turkey’s fiscal balance at 17:00 CET, remarks by ECB President Lagarde at 17:15 CET, total reserve assets in the eurozone at 19:00 CET, Brazil’s economic activity index at 20:00 CET, and the Philippines’ consumer price index at 21:00 CET. During U.S. trading hours, Canada’s international securities turnover and wholesale sales are scheduled for 21:30,at 9:30 PM, the US New York Fed Manufacturing Index, and at 12:30 AM, the US 6-month Treasury bill auction. We will be closely monitoring the direction of the euro to see if ECB President Lagarde’s remarks will cause it to move.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
