All eyes are on whether ECB President Lagarde’s remarks will move the euro
17.07.2023
- Remarks by ECB President Lagarde
- U.S. New York Fed Manufacturing Index
In the U.S. currency market last weekend, the dollar’s weakness—which had persisted for several days—took a breather, and as the dollar emerged as the strongest currency, it traded in a tight range against the euro. The EUR/USD pair moved within a very narrow range between 1.1204 and 1.1244, showing a lack of clear direction.However, while the pair remains above the 10-period moving average on the 4-hour chart, the daily RSI has exceeded 70—the overbought threshold—and the weekly RSI has also touched 70, so traders should be wary of a corrective decline in the EUR/USD pair.
European currencies saw the GBP/JPY pair rise, partly due to a general rebound in cross-yen pairs. GBP/JPY rose by about 2 yen, from 180.211 to 182.280, recovering to the 200-period SMA on the hourly chart.On the higher-time-frame daily chart, the price has broken above the 20-day moving average (MA) with a real body, and the daily RSI is also showing signs of a rebound; therefore, we should keep an eye on the pace of the pound’s rise during European trading hours.
Today, during European trading hours, Turkey’s fiscal balance will be released at 17:00, ECB President Lagarde will deliver remarks at 17:15, total reserve assets in the EU will be released at 19:00, Brazil’s economic activity index will be released at 20:00,at 21:00, the Philippine Consumer Price Index; and during U.S. trading hours, at 21:30, Canadian International Securities Turnover and Canadian Wholesale Sales; at 21:30, the U.S. New York Fed Manufacturing Index; and at 24:30, the U.S. 6-month Bill Auction.We will carefully monitor the direction of the euro to see if ECB President Lagarde’s remarks will cause it to move.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
