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Will the market wait and see how much further the euro can rise against the U.S. dollar?

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Will the market wait and see how much further the euro can rise against the U.S. dollar?

12.07.2023

Today's Highlights
  1. UK: BOE Releases Financial Stability Report
  2. U.S. Consumer Price Index

In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the U.S. dollar fell against the euro. The EUR/USD pair rose from 1.0976 to 1.1026, forming an uptrend along the 10-period moving average (MA) on the 4-hour chart. On the higher-time-frame daily chart, the pair rebounded and rose, supported by the 75-period MA at the lower end.Since the recent high of around 1.1094 serves as the next resistance level for the EUR/USD pair, we will monitor the situation—taking today’s economic data releases into account—to see if the rally continues up to that level.

Among European currencies, the euro fell by about 1.5 yen against the yen. The euro/yen pair fell from 155.676 to 154.174. The downward trend continued during today’s Asian trading session, with the pair touching 153.722.It has fallen below the daily 20-day moving average (MA) for two consecutive days. However, since the euro/yen pair had risen more sharply than other yen crosses, it still remains above the weekly 10-day MA. Consequently, the potential for a sharper decline should the yen strengthen is greater, so traders should remain cautious ahead of economic data releases during European trading hours.

Today’s schedule includes the release of the Bank of England’s Financial Stability Report at 15:00, remarks by Bank of England Governor Bailey at 17:00, the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index at 20:00, the U.S. Consumer Price Index at 21:30, and remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Barkin:Richmond Fed President’s remarks, at 22:45, U.S. Kashkari: Minneapolis Fed President’s remarks, at 23:00, Canada: BOC policy rate and statement release, at 23:30, U.S. weekly crude oil inventories,at 24:00, remarks by BOC Governor Maclean; at 26:00, U.S. 10-year Treasury auction; remarks by Bostic, President of the Atlanta Fed; and at 27:00, the U.S. Beige Book are scheduled.I intend to cautiously monitor the upside potential of the euro, which is rising against the U.S. dollar.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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