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Caution Over the Direction of the Canadian Dollar as Unemployment Rate Rises from 5.2% to 5.4%

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Caution Over the Direction of the Canadian Dollar as Unemployment Rate Rises from 5.2% to 5.4%

10.07.2023

Today's Highlights
  1. Canada: Housing Construction Permit
  2. U.S. Wholesale Inventories

Last weekend, the Canadian dollar fell against the yen following the release of Canada’s June employment report on the 7th. Although the number of employed persons rose to 60,000 from the market forecast of 19,000, the unemployment rate worsened to 5.4% from the market forecast of 5.3%.The CAD/JPY pair fell by just over 90 pips, from 107.835 to 106.878. It declined without finding support at the 20-day moving average (MA) on the daily chart. With the Bank of Canada’s policy rate announcement coming up the day after tomorrow, traders should remain cautious regarding the possibility of a continued decline in the Canadian dollar.

Despite the fact that German industrial production figures released last weekend showed a year-over-year decline from 1.6% the previous month to 0.7%, the euro rose against the U.S. dollar. The euro/dollar pair rose by about 100 pips, from 1.0867 to 1.0973.It rose with momentum that brought it close to last month’s high of 1.1010. From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair is trending upward toward the 1.1160 line—the upper boundary of the daily rising wedge—so we will be watching price movements closely during European trading hours.

Today, at 16:00, Turkey’s employment statistics; at 17:30, the Eurozone investor sentiment index; at 21:30, Canada’s housing permits;at 10:00 PM, Israel’s policy rate; at 11:00 PM, U.S. wholesale inventories and remarks by Fed Vice Chair Bar; at 12:00 AM, remarks by Bank of England Governor Bailey; U.S. Daily:remarks by the President of the San Francisco Fed, remarks by Mester, President of the Cleveland Fed, at 25:00, remarks by Nagel, President of the German Bundesbank, remarks by Bostic, President of the Atlanta Fed, and at 28:00, U.S. consumer credit balances are scheduled to be released.We should remain cautious about the direction of the Canadian dollar, as the unemployment rate has worsened from 5.2% to 5.4%.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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