Will there be end-of-month rebalancing activity following the ECB Forum, or will the market remain on the sidelines?

Will there be end-of-month rebalancing activity following the ECB Forum, or will the market remain on the sidelines?

29.06.2023

In yesterday’s U.S. currency trading, the U.S. dollar rose slightly against the yen after Federal Reserve Chair Powell stated at the ECB Forum held yesterday that “the year-over-year increase in the core inflation rate is unlikely to fall to 2% until 2025 or later,” signaling a continued stance toward interest rate hikes.The USD/JPY pair rose from 143.271 to 144.616, setting a new high for the year. As the pair continues to find support at the 10-period moving average on the 4-hour chart during today’s Asian session, we will be watching price movements closely during European trading hours.

European currencies fell as the euro weakened against the U.S. dollar following the release yesterday of Germany’s July GfK Consumer Confidence Index, which came in at -25.4—a further decline from the previous month’s -24.2. The EUR/USD pair fell by approximately 70 pips from 1.0961 to 1.0897.This move effectively offset the gains made the day before. Since the EUR/USD pair has already broken below the 75-period moving average (MA) on the 4-hour chart, traders should be cautious of further declines during European trading hours.

Today’s schedule includes remarks by Fed Chair Powell at 3:30 p.m., the ECB’s monthly report at 5:00 p.m., UK consumer credit at 5:30 p.m., the Eurozone consumer confidence index at 6:00 p.m., South Africa’s producer price index at 6:30 p.m., and Germany’sConsumer Price Index, at 9:30 PM U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, U.S. Q1 GDP, U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures, and U.S. Pending Home Sales; at 11:30 PM U.S. Weekly Natural Gas Inventories; at 1:30 AM U.K. MPC Member Tenreyro’s remarks; and at 4:00 AM U.S. Atlanta Fed President Bostic’s remarks.We will carefully monitor currency strength and weakness to see if end-of-month rebalancing activity occurs.

Past Market Reports

1. 21.04.2026New

   With the euro-Australian dollar pair hitting new lows this month, attention is turning to how much further it might fall

2. 20.04.2026New

   Will the market wait and see how much further the U.S. dollar can rise against the yen?

3. 17.04.2026New

   Will the weakening Swiss franc recover? Attention is turning to price movements during European trading hours.

4. 16.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely keeping a close eye on the upside potential of the euro, which has risen against the U.S. dollar

5. 15.04.2026New

   Should we keep an eye on remarks by key figures in the U.S. and try to gauge the direction of currency strength?

6. 14.04.2026

   Market participants are likely watching for signs of a rebound in the Canadian dollar, which fell against the U.S. dollar following the release of employment figures

7. 13.04.2026

   Will the weakening Swiss franc continue to strengthen against the yen, or should we wait and see?

8. 10.04.2026

   Will the U.S. dollar, which has fallen against the yen, continue its downward slide, or should we wait and see how the market moves?

9. 09.04.2026

   Should we keep an eye on the upside for European currencies that have risen against the U.S. dollar?

10. 08.04.2026

    Market participants may be wary of further downside potential for the U.S. dollar, which has weakened amid concerns over the situation in Iran