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Caution Advised Over Sudden Euro Movements Following the Release of the ECB Meeting Minutes

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Caution Advised Over Sudden Euro Price Movements Following the Release of the ECB Meeting Minutes

01.06.2023

Today's Highlights
  1. U.S. ADP National Employment Report
  2. Europe: ECB Meeting Minutes Released

In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the Canadian dollar—which saw its first-quarter GDP figure released and improved from the previous reading of 0.0% to 3.1%—traded in a range against the yen.The CAD/JPY pair fluctuated between 102.136 and 103.000, trading above and below the 20-period moving average on the hourly chart.During today’s Asian trading session, the CAD/JPY pair is aiming higher and has recovered to 102.937. We will closely monitor whether the Canadian dollar continues to strengthen against the yen heading into the U.S. trading session.

European currencies fell sharply against the yen, with the euro dropping significantly following yesterday’s release of Germany’s May CPI, which fell sharply from 7.2% to 6.1% year-over-year. The euro/yen pair fell by approximately 140 pips, from 150.082 to 148.621. This was one of the steepest declines among the yen crosses.The rate of decline in European CPI is accelerating, and attention is focused on remarks to be made today by ECB President Lagarde. We will carefully assess the likelihood of the next rate hike based on the release of the ECB meeting minutes and the president’s remarks.

Today, at 15:00, the UK Nationwide House Price Index and German retail sales will be released; at 16:30, the Swiss Manufacturing PMI and remarks by SNB Governor Schlegel; at 17:30, the UK Manufacturing PMI; and at 18:00, the EurozoneConsumer Price Index and the Eurozone Unemployment Rate; at 18:30, remarks by ECB President Lagarde; at 20:30, the release of the ECB meeting minutes; at 21:15, the U.S. ADP National Employment Report;U.S. Initial Jobless Claims at 21:30, U.S. Manufacturing PMI at 22:45, U.S. Weekly Crude Oil Inventories at 24:00, and remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Harker at 26:00 are scheduled.Traders should be on the lookout for sudden price movements in the euro following the release of the ECB meeting minutes.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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