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All Eyes on the Pound as Unemployment Rate Rises from 3.9% to 4.0%

Market Report

All Eyes on the Pound as Unemployment Rate Rises from 3.9% to 4.0%

17.05.2023

Today's Highlights
  1. Remarks by Bank of England Governor Bailey
  2. U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index

In the previous day’s U.S. currency markets, the U.S. dollar became the strongest currency during U.S. trading hours after Cleveland Fed President Mester stated that “interest rates are not at a sufficiently restrictive level,” and other officials made a series of remarks dampening expectations for rate cuts.The EUR/USD pair fell by about 50 pips from 1.0904 to 1.0854. The 75-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart acted as resistance, causing the pair to pull back. Given that yesterday’s decline extended the downtrend along the 20-period MA on the 4-hour chart, traders should remain cautious regarding the direction of the pair during European trading hours.

Among European currencies, the pound rose against the yen following yesterday’s release of the UK’s April employment statistics, which showed the unemployment rate rising by 0.1 percentage points from 3.9% to 4.0%. The GBP/JPY pair rose by approximately 150 pips, from 169.379 to 170.834.The pair has broken slightly above the upper boundary of the descending parallel channel on the 4-hour chart. As prices are testing the upside during today’s Asian session, it will be worth watching whether the pair extends its gains again during the European session.

Today’s schedule includes the Eurozone Consumer Price Index at 18:00 European time, remarks by Bank of England Governor Bailey at 18:50, South African retail sales at 20:00,U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index at 8:50 p.m., and the Turkish Housing Price Index at 8:30 p.m.; during U.S. trading hours, Canadian International Securities Turnover, U.S. Housing Starts, and U.S. Building Permits are scheduled for 9:30 p.m., followed by U.S. Weekly Crude Oil Inventories at 11:30 p.m.,at 2:00 a.m., U.S. 20-Year Treasury Auction; and at 7:45 a.m. the following day, New Zealand Q1 Producer Price Index. We will be closely monitoring the direction of the British pound, as the unemployment rate rose from 3.9% to 4.0%.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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With the GBP/JPY pair entering the 172-yen range, will it rise? Market participants are watching for a clear direction.
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