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Concerns Over Further Downside Potential for the Euro, Which Is Weakening Against the Oceania Currencies

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Concerns Over Further Downside Potential for the Euro, Which Is Weakening Against the Oceania Currencies

09.05.2023

Today's Highlights
  1. Remarks by Jefferson, Member of the Federal Reserve Board
  2. Housing Prices in Halifax, UK

In the U.S. currency market the previous day, the U.S. dollar edged slightly higher against the euro, causing the EUR/USD pair to decline. The EUR/USD pair fell from 1.1053 to 1.0998.It broke below the 75-period moving average (MA) on the 4-hour chart. Technically, while the daily RSI for the EUR/USD pair is trending downward from just below 70, the candlesticks are showing a bullish divergence by forming higher highs. We will be watching closely to see if the U.S. dollar strengthens against the euro as we head into the second half of the week.

European currencies fell against the Oceania currencies as Germany’s 2024 real economic growth forecast, released yesterday, was revised downward from the previous month to 1.3%. The EUR/AUD pair fell by approximately 140 pips from 1.6351 to 1.66205.This downward trend has continued into today’s Asian trading session. Since the EUR/AUD pair has been falling on the weekly chart after touching an RSI of 70, it will be worth watching to see if the decline against the Oceania currencies continues.

Today, during Asian trading hours, the UK Halifax House Price Index will be released at 15:00, followed by France’strade balance, and the current account balance, followed by the U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index at 19:00 during European trading hours, Mexico’s Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index at 21:00, remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Jefferson at 21:30 during U.S. trading hours, and remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Williams:Speech by New York Fed President Williams, and at 26:00, a U.S. 3-year Treasury auction. We should remain cautious about the downside potential for the euro, which is trading weakly against the Oceania currencies.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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