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Caution Over Euro Volatility Following Remarks by ECB President Lagarde

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Caution Over Euro Volatility Following Remarks by ECB President Lagarde

04.05.2023

Today's Highlights
  1. Europe: ECB Policy Rate and Statement Release
  2. Press Conference by ECB President Lagarde

In the U.S. currency market the previous day, the U.S. dollar became the weakest currency after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced yesterday that it had raised the policy interest rate by 0.25%, in line with market consensus, to 5.00–5.25%.The EUR/USD pair rose by approximately 936 pips from 1.0996 to 1.1091, forming an uptrend along the 10-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart. With yesterday’s rally bringing the pair close to this year’s high, and with the 20-period MA providing support on the daily chart, we will be watching for further gains during U.S. trading hours.

Ahead of today’s ECB policy rate announcement, the euro rose against the Australian dollar.The EUR/AUD pair rose from 1.6500 to 1.6594. However, during today’s Asian trading session, the euro became the weakest currency and has since pulled back. Since the RSI on the daily chart for EUR/AUD is trading in a range around 70, traders should be on guard for a sharp drop following the release of economic indicators.

Today, at 3:00 p.m., Germany’s trade balance will be released,at 5:30 p.m., the UK Services PMI and UK mortgage approvals; at 6:00 p.m., the Eurozone Producer Price Index; at 8:30 p.m., the U.S. Challenger job cuts forecast; at 9:15 p.m., the ECB policy rate announcement and statement; at 9:30 p.m., the Canadian trade balance;at 9:45 PM, a press conference by ECB President Lagarde; at 11:00 PM, the Canadian Ivey PMI; at 11:30 PM, U.S. weekly natural gas inventories; and at 1:50 AM, remarks by BOC Governor McClem.We should remain vigilant regarding price movements, as the euro may experience sharp volatility following President Lagarde’s remarks at the ECB.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management with a particular focus on foreign exchange markets, and also has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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With the ECB meeting coming up the day after tomorrow, all eyes are on the direction of the euro, which has shown resilience on the downside

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All eyes are on whether the euro-dollar exchange rate will fall following the release of the employment report
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