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All Eyes on the Direction of the Franc-Yen Exchange Rate, Which Hit a 43-Year High

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All Eyes on the Direction of the Franc-Yen Exchange Rate, Which Hit a 43-Year High

02.05.2023

Today's Highlights
  1. Swiss Manufacturing PMI
  2. U.S. JOLTS Job Openings

The U.S. dollar rose against the yen yesterday, even though the U.S. April PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index), released yesterday, came in at 50.2—0.2 points below the market forecast of 50.4. The USD/JPY pair rose by approximately 1.4 yen, from 136.134 to 137.574.This marked the first time the pair had reached the 137-yen level since March 8 of this year. Since the USD/JPY pair is currently moving from the lower boundary to the upper boundary of its daily uptrend line, we will be closely monitoring whether it will reach the upper boundary of the trend line in the 139-yen range.

Among European currencies, the Swiss franc is rising against the yen, with CHF/JPY touching 153.694. CHF/JPY has reached a 43-year high, and if it breaks above the 159-yen level, the upside will be unlimited.However, the daily RSI has already exceeded 70 and stands at 75.4, and the weekly RSI is showing divergence around the 70 level. We need to carefully assess whether the franc will continue to rise against the yen as expected.

Today’s schedule includes UK Nationwide house prices and German retail sales at 15:00, the Swiss Manufacturing PMI at 16:30, the UK Manufacturing PMI at 17:30, and the EurozoneConsumer Price Index, a speech by RBA Governor Lowe at 8:20 p.m., the U.S. Manufacturing Orders Index and U.S. JOLTS Job Openings at 11:00 p.m., and the release of the RBNZ Financial Stability Report at 6:00 a.m. the following day. I intend to carefully monitor the direction of the CHF/JPY pair, which has reached a 43-year high.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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