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Should we keep an eye on the direction of the franc-yen exchange rate, which has hit a 43-year high?

Market Report

Should we keep an eye on the direction of the franc-yen exchange rate, which has hit a 43-year high?

Today's Highlights
  1. Swiss Manufacturing PMI
  2. U.S. JOLTS Job Openings

The U.S. dollar rose against the yen yesterday, even though the U.S. April PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) released yesterday came in at 50.2—0.2 points below the market forecast of 50.4. The USD/JPY pair rose by approximately 1.4 yen, from 136.134 to 137.574, reaching the 137-yen level for the first time since March 8 of this year.Since USD/JPY is currently moving from the lower boundary to the upper boundary of its daily uptrend line, we will closely monitor whether the pair will reach the upper boundary of the trend line in the 139-yen range.

Among European currencies, the Swiss franc is rising against the yen, with CHF/JPY touching 153.694. CHF/JPY has reached a 43-year high, and if it breaks above the 159 yen level, the upside will be unlimited.However, the daily RSI has already exceeded 70 and stands at 75.4, and the weekly RSI is showing divergence around the 70 level. We need to carefully assess whether the franc will continue to rise against the yen as expected.

Today, at 3:00 PM, UK Nationwide House Prices and German Retail Sales will be released,at 4:30 PM, Swiss Manufacturing PMI; at 5:30 PM, UK Manufacturing PMI; at 6:00 PM, Eurozone Consumer Price Index; at 8:20 PM, remarks by RBA Governor Lowe; at 11:00 PM, US Factory Orders and US JOLTS Job Openings; and at 6:00 AM the following day, the release of the RBNZ Financial Stability Report.I intend to carefully monitor the direction of the CHF/JPY pair, which has reached a 43-year high.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

I have over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, I have focused primarily on foreign exchange trading and have also worked as an investment advisor. Drawing on my extensive experience, I specialize in technical and fundamental analysis.

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