Will the market wait and see how much further the euro can rise, given the strong German IFO Business Climate Index?

Will the market wait and see how much further the euro can rise, given the strong German IFO Business Climate Index?

25.04.2023

In yesterday’s U.S. trading session, the U.S. dollar fell despite the March Chicago Fed National Activity Index—released yesterday—coming in at -0.19, slightly better than the market forecast of -0.2. The EUR/USD pair rose by approximately 80 pips from 1.0966 to 1.1049. It has continued to climb to 1.1066 during today’s Asian trading session.On the daily chart, no RSI divergence has emerged, and the uptrend along the 20-day moving average continues; therefore, we should remain vigilant for a potential weakening of the U.S. dollar during European trading hours.

European currencies rose against the yen after Germany’s April IFO Business Climate Index, released yesterday, came in at 93.6, surpassing both the previous reading and market expectations.EUR/JPY rose by just under 150 pips, from 147.121 to 148.617. On the daily chart, it is in a strong uptrend, supported by the 10-day moving average. Since EUR/JPY has already broken above last year’s high of 148.364 and set a new high for the year, we will be watching for further gains during U.S. trading hours.

Today’s schedule includes the Swiss trade balance at 3:00 PM Asia time, remarks by Bank of England Deputy Governor Broadbent at 6:00 PM Europe time, the CBI Business Survey at 7:00 PM, the U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index at 10:00 PM, the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index at 11:00 PM, and U.S. New Home Sales at 11:00 PM.CBI Business Survey, the US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index at 10:00 PM, the US Consumer Confidence Index, US New Home Sales, and the US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index at 11:00 PM US time, a US 2-year Treasury auction at 2:00 AM, and the NZ Trade Balance at 7:45 AM the following day.We will cautiously monitor the upside potential of the euro, which has been rising on the back of a strong German IFO Business Climate Index.

Past Market Reports

1. 21.04.2026New

   With the euro-Australian dollar pair hitting new lows this month, attention is turning to how much further it might fall

2. 20.04.2026New

   Will the market wait and see how much further the U.S. dollar can rise against the yen?

3. 17.04.2026New

   Will the weakening Swiss franc recover? Attention is turning to price movements during European trading hours.

4. 16.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely keeping a close eye on the upside potential of the euro, which has risen against the U.S. dollar

5. 15.04.2026New

   Should we keep an eye on remarks by key figures in the U.S. and try to gauge the direction of currency strength?

6. 14.04.2026

   Market participants are likely watching for signs of a rebound in the Canadian dollar, which fell against the U.S. dollar following the release of employment figures

7. 13.04.2026

   Will the weakening Swiss franc continue to strengthen against the yen, or should we wait and see?

8. 10.04.2026

   Will the U.S. dollar, which has fallen against the yen, continue its downward slide, or should we wait and see how the market moves?

9. 09.04.2026

   Should we keep an eye on the upside for European currencies that have risen against the U.S. dollar?

10. 08.04.2026

    Market participants may be wary of further downside potential for the U.S. dollar, which has weakened amid concerns over the situation in Iran