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Will the market wait and see whether the euro has room to rise further, given the strong German IFO Business Climate Index?

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Will the market wait and see whether the euro has room to rise further, given the strong German IFO Business Climate Index?

25.04.2023

Today's Highlights
  1. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (U.S.)
  2. New Zealand: Trade Balance

In U.S. currency trading yesterday, the U.S. dollar fell during U.S. trading hours, even though the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for March—released yesterday—came in at -0.19, compared to market expectations of -0.2. The EUR/USD pair rose by about 80 pips, from 1.0966 to 1.1049.It has continued to climb to 1.1066 during today’s Asian trading session. On the daily chart, no RSI divergence has emerged, and the uptrend along the 20-day moving average continues; therefore, traders should remain vigilant for a potential weakening of the U.S. dollar during European trading hours.

European currencies rose against the yen as the German IFO Business Climate Index for April, released yesterday, came in at 93.6—exceeding both the previous reading and market expectations.The EUR/JPY pair rose by just under 150 pips, from 147.121 to 148.617. On the daily chart, it is in a strong uptrend, supported by the 10-day moving average (10MA). Since the EUR/JPY has already broken above last year’s high of 148.364 and set a new high for the year, we will be watching for further gains during U.S. trading hours.

Today, the Swiss trade balance will be released at 15:00 Asia time; at 18:00 European time, remarks by BOE Deputy Governor Broadbent will be delivered; at 19:00, the UK CBI Business Survey will be released; at 22:00, the U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index will be released;at 23:00 U.S. time, the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index, U.S. New Home Sales, and the U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index; at 26:00, the U.S. 2-Year Treasury Auction; and at 7:45 the following day, New Zealand’s trade balance.We will cautiously monitor the upside potential of the euro, which has been rising on the back of a strong German IFO Business Climate Index.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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