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Will liquidity increase following the long weekend in Europe and the U.S., or should we be wary of volatility?

Market Report

Will liquidity increase following the long weekend in Europe and the U.S., or should we be wary of volatility?

Today's Highlights
  1. Harker (U.S.): Remarks by the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
  2. U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

In U.S. currency trading the previous day, the U.S. dollar rose against the yen after the Bank of Japan’s new Governor Ueda announced at his inaugural press conference—held during European trading hours—that the bank would maintain its large-scale monetary easing.On the daily chart, USD/JPY has formed higher lows and risen to just below the 200 EMA from the 20 MA, setting a new high for the month. While the Dollar Index is hovering around 102.3, we will be watching the direction of the U.S. dollar to see if a rebound occurs during U.S. trading hours.

Among European currencies, the pound rebounded against the U.S. dollar during today’s Asian trading session following the release of the UK’s March BRC existing retail sales figures, which showed a 5.1% year-over-year increase.Although the GBP/USD pair fell from 1.2442 to 1.2345 yesterday, it rebounded during today’s Asian trading session following the release of the data and has already recovered to 1.2407.On the daily chart, GBP/USD has been rising within the range between the -2σ and +2σ Bollinger Bands, so it will be important to monitor whether the pound continues to strengthen against the U.S. dollar.

Today, Japan’s machine tool orders will be released at 15:00 Asia time; Turkey’s industrial production at 16:00 Europe time; Eurozone retail sales at 18:00; the U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index at 19:00;at 20:00 South African manufacturing output, at 26:00 U.S. time a U.S. 3-year Treasury auction, at 26:30 remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Goolsbee, and at 7:00 the following day remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Harker.With markets reopening after the long weekend in Europe and the U.S., we should watch for potential increases in liquidity and be mindful of volatility.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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