Should investors be wary of the euro’s downward trend, which stands in contrast to strong economic indicators?

Should investors be wary of the euro’s downward trend, which stands in contrast to strong economic indicators?

06.04.2023

In yesterday’s U.S. currency trading, the U.S. dollar fell against the yen after the March ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, released yesterday, came in at 51.2, below the market forecast of 54.5. The USD/JPY pair fell from 131.837 to 130.652, continuing its decline as the 20-period moving average on the hourly chart capped its upside.With a series of economic indicators released this week falling short of market expectations, attention is expected to shift toward tomorrow’s U.S. employment report. We will closely monitor the dollar’s price movements ahead of the report.

Despite the fact that Germany’s February manufacturing new orders, released yesterday, came in at -5.7% year-on-year—better than the market forecast of -9.4%—the euro fell against the U.S. dollar.The EUR/USD pair fell from 1.0968 to 1.0884, dropping below the 20-period moving average on the 4-hour chart. Since the 4-hour RSI is showing a bearish divergence—moving lower in contrast to the direction of the candlesticks—we will need to closely monitor whether the decline in the EUR/USD pair continues.

Today’s schedule includes Swiss employment figures at 14:45 Asia time, German industrial production and UK Halifax house prices at 15:00, and UKConstruction PMI, U.S. Challenger Job Cuts at 20:30, Canadian Employment Statistics and U.S. Initial Jobless Claims at 21:30 U.S. time, Canadian Ivey PMI and remarks by U.S. St. Louis Fed President Bullard at 23:00, and U.S. Weekly Natural Gas Inventories at 23:30.We should remain cautious about the direction of the euro, which is falling in contrast to strong economic indicators.

Past Market Reports

1. 21.04.2026New

   With the euro-Australian dollar pair hitting new lows this month, attention is turning to how much further it might fall

2. 20.04.2026New

   Will the market wait and see how much further the U.S. dollar can rise against the yen?

3. 17.04.2026New

   Will the weakening Swiss franc recover? Attention is turning to price movements during European trading hours.

4. 16.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely keeping a close eye on the upside potential of the euro, which has risen against the U.S. dollar

5. 15.04.2026New

   Should we keep an eye on remarks by key figures in the U.S. and try to gauge the direction of currency strength?

6. 14.04.2026

   Market participants are likely watching for signs of a rebound in the Canadian dollar, which fell against the U.S. dollar following the release of employment figures

7. 13.04.2026

   Will the weakening Swiss franc continue to strengthen against the yen, or should we wait and see?

8. 10.04.2026

   Will the U.S. dollar, which has fallen against the yen, continue its downward slide, or should we wait and see how the market moves?

9. 09.04.2026

   Should we keep an eye on the upside for European currencies that have risen against the U.S. dollar?

10. 08.04.2026

    Market participants may be wary of further downside potential for the U.S. dollar, which has weakened amid concerns over the situation in Iran