Should investors be wary of the direction of cross-yen pairs, which have reversed course from last weekend’s yen strength and are now weakening again?
29.03.2023
- France: Consumer Confidence Index
- U.S. Existing Home Sales Pending
In yesterday’s U.S. currency trading, the U.S. dollar fell slightly against the yen after the Conference Board’s U.S. Consumer Confidence Index for March, released yesterday, rose to 104.2 from 102.9 the previous month. The USD/JPY pair fell from 131.567 to 130.391, finding support at the -2σ level on the daily chart.During today’s Asian session, the pair has rebounded, rising to 131.850. As today’s rebound has formed a pattern of higher lows on the 4-hour chart, we will be closely monitoring the dollar’s performance during U.S. trading hours.
Among European currencies, the pound saw a seesawing trend against the yen. The GBP/JPY pair fluctuated between 160.727 and 161.781 before breaking above that level during today’s Asian trading session. It has since risen to 162.456, breaking through the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. We will closely monitor the direction of the pound to see if this momentum continues into the European trading session.
Today’s schedule includes the German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey at 3:00 PM, the French Consumer Confidence Index at 3:45 PM, UK Mortgage Approvals at 5:30 PM, the US MBA Mortgage Applications Index at 8:00 PM, remarks by US Federal Reserve Vice Chair Bar at 9:30 PM, and US Pending Home Sales at 11:00 PM,remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Bar, U.S. weekly crude oil inventories at 11:30 PM, remarks by Canadian BOC Vice Chair Gravel at 1:30 AM, U.S. 7-year Treasury auction at 2:00 AM, remarks by UK MPC member Mann at 3:50 AM, and New Zealand housing construction permits at 6:45 AM the following day.We should remain cautious regarding the direction of cross-yen pairs, which have reversed course from last weekend’s yen strength and are now returning to yen weakness.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
