Market participants are likely to keep a close eye on the direction of the U.S. dollar following the better-than-expected economic data

Market participants are likely to keep a close eye on the direction of the U.S. dollar following the better-than-expected economic data

27.03.2023

Last weekend, the U.S. dollar strengthened against the euro despite a decline in February durable goods orders that defied market expectations, as the March Composite PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index), released on the same day, came in at 53.3, maintaining a reading above the benchmark of 50. The EUR/USD pair fell from 1.0837 to 1.0714, finding support at the 200-period SMA on the hourly chart.On the 4-hour chart, the 75-period moving average (MA) is acting as support, and on the daily chart, the 200-period SMA through the 10-period MA forms a perfect order. Since no particular divergence is visible on the weekly RSI, we should keep an eye on the strength of the U.S. dollar.

European currencies fell against the U.S. dollar as the British pound weakened following the release on the 24th of the preliminary UK February Manufacturing and Services PMI figures, which showed a decline from the previous month. The GBP/USD pair fell from 1.2291 to 1.2191, dropping to the -2σ level of the 4-hour Bollinger Bands.From a technical perspective, since the RSI has shown divergence after exceeding 70, we should remain vigilant for a potential full-scale pullback.

Today’s economic indicators include Sweden’s trade balance at 3:00 PM, Turkey’s capacity utilization rate at 4:00 PM, Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index at 5:00 PM, remarks by German Bundesbank President Nagel at 5:30 PM, Israel’s unemployment rate at 7:00 PM, the UK’s CBI Retail Sales and Mexico’s trade balance at 8:00 PM,the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index at 11:30 PM, the U.S. 2-year Treasury auction at 12:30 AM, remarks by Bank of England Governor Bailey at 2:00 AM, and remarks by Federal Reserve Governor Jefferson at 6:00 AM the following day. I intend to closely monitor the direction of the U.S. dollar following any upward surprises in these economic indicators.

Past Market Reports

1. 21.04.2026New

   With the euro-Australian dollar pair hitting new lows this month, attention is turning to how much further it might fall

2. 20.04.2026New

   Will the market wait and see how much further the U.S. dollar can rise against the yen?

3. 17.04.2026New

   Will the weakening Swiss franc recover? Attention is turning to price movements during European trading hours.

4. 16.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely keeping a close eye on the upside potential of the euro, which has risen against the U.S. dollar

5. 15.04.2026New

   Should we keep an eye on remarks by key figures in the U.S. and try to gauge the direction of currency strength?

6. 14.04.2026

   Market participants are likely watching for signs of a rebound in the Canadian dollar, which fell against the U.S. dollar following the release of employment figures

7. 13.04.2026

   Will the weakening Swiss franc continue to strengthen against the yen, or should we wait and see?

8. 10.04.2026

   Will the U.S. dollar, which has fallen against the yen, continue its downward slide, or should we wait and see how the market moves?

9. 09.04.2026

   Should we keep an eye on the upside for European currencies that have risen against the U.S. dollar?

10. 08.04.2026

    Market participants may be wary of further downside potential for the U.S. dollar, which has weakened amid concerns over the situation in Iran