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Should We Focus on the Euro’s Upward Trend, Uninfluenced by Economic Indicators?

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Should We Focus on the Euro’s Upward Trend, Uninfluenced by Economic Indicators?

22.03.2023

Today's Highlights
  1. U.S. FOMC Policy Rate and Statement Announcement
  2. Remarks by ECB President Lagarde

In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the U.S. dollar rose against the yen after February’s existing home sales figures—released yesterday—came in at 4.58 million, exceeding the market forecast of 4.10 million. The USD/JPY pair rose from 131.015 to 132.778, tracking the 20-period moving average on the hourly chart.Today, the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled to take place (U.S. time), and the market consensus currently prices in a 0.25% interest rate hike. We will monitor the situation cautiously to see if the scenario plays out as expected and the U.S. dollar remains firm.

Among European currencies, the euro rose against the yen after Germany’s March ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, released yesterday, came in at 13.0—below the market forecast of 15.2.The EUR/JPY pair rose from 140.414 to 142.772, showing a rebound of more than 200 pips. On the hourly chart, EUR/JPY has broken above the 200-period SMA, and on the daily chart, while the highs are declining, the lows are rising. We will monitor the situation closely to see if this upward trend continues.

Today, at 16:00 European time, the UK Consumer Price Index, UK Retail Sales, and UK Producer Price Index will be released; at 17:45, ECB President Lagarde will deliver remarks; and at 20:00, the UKCBI Business Survey, and the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index at 20:00 during European trading hours; U.S. weekly crude oil inventories at 23:30 during U.S. trading hours;at 26:00, remarks by German Bundesbank President Nagel; at 27:00, the U.S. FOMC policy rate decision and statement; and at 27:30, a press conference by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Powell. We want to carefully assess the upward trend of the euro, which is continuing regardless of economic data releases.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management with a particular focus on foreign exchange markets, and he also has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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All eyes are on whether the U.S. dollar, which fell following the FOMC meeting, will rebound
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