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Will the U.S. Dollar See Volatile Moves Following the U.S. CPI Release? Market Participants Should Watch Price Movements Closely

Market Report

Will the U.S. Dollar See Volatile Moves Following the U.S. CPI Release? Market Participants Should Watch Price Movements Closely

14.03.2023

Today's Highlights
  1. UK Employment Statistics
  2. U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI)

In the previous day’s U.S. currency markets, the U.S. dollar faced resistance due to the failures of two U.S. banks, causing it to decline against the yen. It became the weakest currency. The USD/JPY pair fell approximately 270 pips from 135.051 to 132.284, reaching its highest level against the yen in a month.The USD/JPY pair had already fallen below its 20-day moving average (MA) on the daily chart following yesterday’s decline and is in the process of forming the right shoulder of a head-and-shoulders pattern on the weekly chart. We will be closely watching today’s U.S. CPI release to see if the U.S. dollar recovers.

Among European currencies, the euro/yen fell by more than 3 yen. The euro/yen dropped from 144.388 to 141.369. It fell well below the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart but found support at the daily 200-period SMA and rebounded.Although the pair has rebounded during today’s Asian trading session, it has been forming lower highs on the daily chart and has now entered a downtrend line. Therefore, we should remain cautious as the price may target the 130-yen level following a time-based correction.

Today’s schedule includes the UK Employment Report at 4:00 p.m., Swiss Producer Import Prices and Hungarian Industrial Production at 4:30 p.m., Hong Kong Industrial Production and the Hong Kong Producer Price Index at 5:30 p.m., the U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index at 7:00 p.m.,at 8:00 p.m., South African manufacturing output; at 9:30 p.m., Canadian manufacturing shipments and the U.S. Consumer Price Index; at 6:20 a.m. the following day, remarks by Federal Reserve Governor Bowman; and at 6:45 a.m., New Zealand’s fourth-quarter current account balance.We should remain vigilant regarding price movements, as today’s U.S. CPI release could cause the U.S. dollar to fluctuate sharply.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. He specializes in technical and fundamental analysis, drawing on his extensive experience.

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