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With February’s Unemployment Rate Down, All Eyes Are on the Swiss Franc’s Direction

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With February’s Unemployment Rate Down, All Eyes on the Swiss Franc’s Direction

08.03.2023

Today's Highlights
  1. U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index
  2. Remarks by ECB President Lagarde

In the U.S. currency market the previous day, the U.S. dollar strengthened against the Canadian dollar following hawkish remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Powell. The USD/CAD pair rose from 1.3598 to 1.3760, closing with a strong bullish candlestick on the daily chart.Following yesterday’s rise, USD/CAD has climbed to the +2σ level of the weekly Bollinger Bands. The weekly RSI has resumed its upward trend from the 48 midpoint. On the short-term hourly chart, the RSI is showing divergence from the 87 level, so traders should be cautious of a pullback during European trading hours.

Among European currencies, the Swiss franc fell against the yen after the seasonally adjusted February unemployment rate was reported yesterday at 1.9%. The CHF/JPY pair fell from 146.336 to 145.324.It fell below the 20-period moving average on the 4-hour chart. However, during today’s Asian trading session, the yen has been sold off, leading to a strong rebound, and the pair has already recovered to 146.092. We will carefully monitor whether this rebound continues through the U.S. trading session.

Today, at 4:00 p.m., Germany’sIndustrial Production and Retail Sales at 4:00 PM; remarks by UK MPC member Dingla at 6:30 PM; remarks by ECB President Lagarde at 7:00 PM; the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index at 9:00 PM; remarks by U.S. Richmond Fed President Barkin at 10:00 PM;Richmond Fed President remarks; at 10:15 PM, the U.S. ADP National Employment Report; at 10:30 PM, Canada’s trade balance and the U.S. trade balance; at 12:00 AM, Canada’s BOC policy rate and statement, U.S. JOLTS job openings,U.S. Fed Chair Powell’s Congressional Testimony, U.S. Weekly Crude Oil Inventories at 24:30, U.S. 10-Year Treasury Auction at 27:00, and U.S. Beige Book at 28:00. I’ll be watching the direction of the Swiss franc following the decline in the February unemployment rate.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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All eyes are on whether we'll see any clear movement in the euro-dollar pair, which is currently in a state of equilibrium.
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