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All Eyes on Germany’s Fourth-Quarter GDP: Will It Trigger Moves in the Euro?

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All Eyes on Germany’s Fourth-Quarter GDP: Will It Trigger Moves in the Euro?

24.02.2023

Today's Highlights
  1. Germany's Fourth-Quarter GDP
  2. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

The previous day, the U.S. dollar showed a slight upward trend against the euro, causing the EUR/USD pair to decline. The EUR/USD fell by approximately 50 pips from 1.0628 to 1.0577.This marked another new monthly low, following the previous day’s decline. The EUR/USD is currently trading just below the 75-day moving average (MA), with the daily RSI hovering around 36. On the 4-hour chart, the pair is midway in its descent from the upper boundary of the downtrend channel toward the lower boundary; therefore, we will be closely monitoring whether today’s U.S. economic data releases will cause the euro to fall further.

Among European currencies, the Swiss franc was the weakest from European trading hours through U.S. trading hours. The CHF/JPY pair fell from 145.031 to 143.680.The decline continued after the pair broke below the 75-period moving average on the 4-hour chart. From a technical perspective, the CHF/JPY pair has continued to rebound to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level on the daily chart, so it will be worth watching whether the yen weakens further depending on economic indicators.

Today’s schedule includes Germany’s Q4 GDP and GFK Consumer Confidence Index at 16:00; France’s Consumer Confidence Index and remarks by German Bundesbank President Nagel at 16:45; U.S. Personal Income and the U.S. Core PCE Deflator at 22:30;at 24:00, U.S. new home sales and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index; at 24:15, remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Jefferson; remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Mester:President of the Cleveland Fed; at 25:30, remarks by UK MPC Member Tenreyro and U.S. St. Louis Fed President Bullard; at 27:30, remarks by U.S. Boston Fed President Collins and U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Waller are scheduled.We will be watching closely to see if the release of Germany’s fourth-quarter GDP data triggers any movement in the euro.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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