All Eyes on Whether the Release of the U.S. FOMC Minutes Will Cause Shifts in Currency Strength
04.01.2023
- Release of the U.S. FOMC Minutes (December 13–14)
- U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index
In U.S. currency trading the previous day, the euro/dollar fell as the Dollar Index surged nearly 1% to 104.6. The euro/dollar dropped by about 160 pips from 1.0683 to 1.0519, breaking below the trading range that had persisted for about two weeks.From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD has broken below its 20-day moving average (MA), and with the daily RSI at 52.2—a neutral level—we will be closely monitoring whether the release of the FOMC minutes during U.S. trading hours brings about any changes.
Among European currencies, the Swiss franc, which had been strengthening, fell against the yen. The CHF/JPY pair fell by about 2.7 yen, from 141.684 to 138.951.It broke significantly below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) on the daily chart. Since there is a support line in the low 137-yen range on the daily chart, we will need to monitor the situation closely to see if the pair breaks below the 137-yen level.
Today, at 16:00, Germany’s Import Price Index; at 16:30, Switzerland’s Consumer Price Index; at 16:45, France’sCPI, at 5:50 PM the French Services PMI, at 5:55 PM the German Services PMI, at 6:00 PM the Eurozone Services PMI, at 6:30 PM the UKmortgage approvals, and UK consumer credit balances at 16:30; the US MBA Mortgage Applications Index at 21:00; the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and US JOLTS job openings at 24:00; and the release of the US FOMC minutes at 28:00.We will carefully assess the direction of the market to see if the release of the U.S. FOMC minutes will cause any shifts in currency strength.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
