All eyes are on whether the release of the FOMC minutes will cause shifts in currency strength
04.01.2023
- Release of the FOMC Minutes (December 13–14)
- MIS Manufacturing Index
In the U.S. currency market the previous day, the euro/dollar fell as the dollar index surged nearly 1% to 104.6.The EUR/USD pair fell by about 160 pips from 1.0683 to 1.0519, breaking below the range that had persisted for about two weeks. Technically, the EUR/USD has broken below the daily 20-day moving average (MA), and with the daily RSI at 52.2—a neutral level—we will be watching closely to see if the release of the FOMC minutes during U.S. trading hours brings about any changes.
Among European currencies, the Swiss franc, which had been strengthening, fell against the yen. The CHF/JPY pair dropped by approximately 2.7 yen, from 141.684 to 138.951. It fell well below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) on the daily chart. Since there is a support line in the low 137-yen range on the daily chart, we will be watching closely to see if the pair breaks below the 137-yen level.
Today, at 4:00 PM, Germany’s Import Price Index; at 4:30 PM, Switzerland’s Consumer Price Index; at 4:45 PM, France’s Consumer Price Index; at 5:50 PM, France’s Services PMI; at 5:55 PM, Germany’s Services PMI; at 6:00 PM, the Eurozone’s Services PMI; at 6:30 PM, the UK’smortgage approvals and consumer credit balances, the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index at 9:00 PM, the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS job openings at midnight, and the release of the U.S. FOMC minutes at 4:00 AM. We will carefully assess the market direction to see if the release of the U.S. FOMC minutes leads to any shifts in currency strength.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
