Concerns over further downside potential for the euro following the news from Poland

Concerns over further downside potential for the euro following the news from Poland

16.11.2022

In the previous day’s U.S. currency trading, the U.S. dollar faced resistance as the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) fell sharply year-over-year to 8.0% from the previous month’s 8.5%. The USD/JPY pair fell as low as 137.672.This marked the lowest level since August 29 of this year. While the decline in USD/JPY has been notable, on a weekly chart, the 20-day moving average (MA) is acting as resistance, capping the upside. Unless the RSI divergence on the weekly chart resolves, we should remain cautious about further downside.

European currencies saw the euro weaken further against a US dollar that remains capped on the upside. The euro plummeted yesterday after a missile struck Poland, killing two people. The EUR/USD pair fell by approximately 200 pips from 1.0481 to 1.0282. However, today the pair rebounded as it found support at the 20-period moving average on the 4-hour chart, so we will be watching closely to see if it recovers during European trading hours.

Today’s schedule includes the UK Consumer Price Index at 4:00 PM, the US MBA Mortgage Applications Index at 9:00 PM, Canadian Housing Starts at 10:15 PM, the Canadian Consumer Price Index and US Retail Sales at 10:30 PM,US Import Price Index, UK BOE Governor Bailey’s remarks at 11:15 PM, US Industrial Production, NY Fed President Williams’ remarks at 11:50 PM, US Business Inventories at 12:00 AM,US Fed Vice Chair Barre’s remarks, US weekly crude oil inventories at 12:30 a.m., ECB President Lagarde’s remarks at 2:00 a.m., US 20-year Treasury auction at 3:00 a.m., and US Fed Vice Chair Waller’s remarks at 4:35 a.m. are scheduled. We should remain cautious about the downside potential for the euro, which fell following the news from Poland.

Past Market Reports

1. 22.04.2026New

   Will interest grow in the upside potential of the Swiss franc, which has risen against the yen?

2. 21.04.2026New

   With the euro-Australian dollar pair hitting new lows this month, attention is turning to how much further it might fall

3. 20.04.2026New

   Will the market wait and see how much further the U.S. dollar can rise against the yen?

4. 17.04.2026New

   Will the weakening Swiss franc recover? Attention is turning to price movements during European trading hours.

5. 16.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely keeping a close eye on the upside potential of the euro, which has risen against the U.S. dollar

6. 15.04.2026

   Should we keep an eye on remarks by key figures in the U.S. and try to gauge the direction of currency strength?

7. 14.04.2026

   Market participants are likely watching for signs of a rebound in the Canadian dollar, which fell against the U.S. dollar following the release of employment figures

8. 13.04.2026

   Will the weakening Swiss franc continue to strengthen against the yen, or should we wait and see?

9. 10.04.2026

   Will the U.S. dollar, which has fallen against the yen, continue its downward slide, or should we wait and see how the market moves?

10. 09.04.2026

    Should we keep an eye on the upside for European currencies that have risen against the U.S. dollar?