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Should We Keep an Eye on Changes in Currency Strength This Weekend?

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Should We Keep an Eye on Changes in Currency Strength This Weekend?

28.10.2022

Today's Highlights
  1. U.S. Personal Income
  2. U.S. Core PCE Deflator

U.S. currencies rose against the euro yesterday after the U.S. third-quarter GDP figure, released yesterday, came in at 2.6%, exceeding the pre-release consensus. The EUR/USD pair fell by approximately 130 pips from 1.0093 to 0.9957.The pair fell from the +2σ level of the 4-hour Bollinger Bands to just below the 20-period moving average. However, since no RSI divergence has appeared on either the 4-hour or daily charts—and the bullish signal has not been negated—traders should be on the lookout for a potential decline in the U.S. dollar from the weekend through the start of next week.

Although the ECB raised its policy rate by 0.75% to 2.00% during yesterday’s policy announcement, the euro fell, putting downward pressure on the pound, another European currency.The EUR/GBP pair fell by approximately 80 pips from 0.8688 to 0.8609, approaching this month’s low. On the daily chart, the price has broken below the 75-day moving average (MA) with a real body candle, so we need to remain vigilant as to whether the decline will continue.

Today, during Asian trading hours at 15:45, the French Producer Price Index and French Consumer Price Index will be released; during European trading hours at 16:00, the Swiss KOF Leading Index will be released; at 17:00, Germany’s third-quarter GDP (flash estimate) will be released; and at 21:00, Germany’sCPI, at 21:30 during U.S. trading hours: Canadian GDP, U.S. personal income, U.S. personal spending, U.S. PCE deflator, and U.S. core PCE deflator, and at 23:00: U.S. pending home sales and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.We will be closely monitoring how these economic releases affect currency strength and weakness over the weekend.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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