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Caution Over the Euro's Direction Ahead of Tomorrow's ECB Meeting?

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Caution Over the Euro's Direction Ahead of Tomorrow's ECB Meeting?

26.10.2022

Today's Highlights
  1. Canada: BOC Policy Rate and Statement Release
  2. U.S. Weekly Crude Oil Inventories

U.S. currencies weakened the previous day as expectations for a significant rate hike at the next FOMC meeting receded due to inflationary pressures. The EUR/USD pair rose by approximately 120 pips, from 0.9848 to 0.9975.The pair broke above the daily downtrend line—which had been in place since February 7 of this year—with a candlestick body. If the EUR/USD continues to rise, attention will turn to whether it can break above the recent daily high of 0.9999.

European currencies rose, with the euro gaining against the yen after Germany’s October Ifo Business Climate Index, released yesterday, came in at 84.3—exceeding the market forecast of 83.6. The euro/yen pair has been on an upward trend since immediately after the currency intervention the day before yesterday and is currently trading around 147.662.With a 0.75% rate hike expected at tomorrow’s ECB meeting, we will be watching closely to see if the euro continues to rise.

Today’s economic indicators include the French Consumer Confidence Index at 15:45, the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index at 20:00, U.S. Wholesale Inventories (flash estimate) at 21:30,at 23:00, the Canadian BOC policy rate and statement, U.S. new home sales; at 23:30, U.S. weekly crude oil inventories; at 24:00, a press conference by BOC Governor McUllum; and at 26:00, a U.S. 5-year Treasury auction.With the ECB meeting tomorrow, we’ll need to keep a close eye on the euro’s direction to see if it will rise.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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