Will the decline in the dollar index weigh on the US dollar’s upside, or should we wait and see?

Will the decline in the dollar index weigh on the US dollar’s upside, or should we wait and see?

24.10.2022

Last weekend, the U.S. dollar weakened against the euro as the Dollar Index fell to 112.1, causing the EUR/USD pair to rise.The EUR/USD pair rose from 0.9705 to 0.9835. This rebound occurred after the price broke above the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. However, looking at the daily chart, the price is fluctuating around the 20-period MA without much momentum, so we need to carefully assess whether the euro’s momentum will continue into U.S. trading hours.

The decline of the euro against the yen due to currency intervention was limited to about 4 yen, as the Eurozone’s October consumer confidence index—released last Friday, the 21st—came in at -27.6, slightly exceeding market expectations of -31.1 and surpassing the previous reading of -28.8.The EUR/JPY pair fell from 148.347 to 144.180 over the course of about two hours. During today’s Asian trading session, it has recovered to around 146.422. Since it is currently trading above the 10-day moving average on the daily chart, attention will focus on whether it can break above the pre-intervention level of 148.347.

Today, during European trading hours, the French Manufacturing/Services PMI will be released at 16:15, the German Manufacturing/Services PMI at 16:30, the Eurozone Manufacturing/Services PMI at 17:00, and the UKmanufacturing and services PMIs, followed by the U.S. Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 21:30 U.S. time, the U.S. manufacturing and services PMIs at 22:45, remarks by Ramsden, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, at 23:15, and remarks by U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen at 24:00. I intend to watch the situation carefully to see if the decline in the Dollar Index will weigh on the upside of the U.S. dollar.

Past Market Reports

1. 22.04.2026New

   Will interest grow in the upside potential of the Swiss franc, which has risen against the yen?

2. 21.04.2026New

   With the euro-Australian dollar pair hitting new lows this month, attention is turning to how much further it might fall

3. 20.04.2026New

   Will the market wait and see how much further the U.S. dollar can rise against the yen?

4. 17.04.2026New

   Will the weakening Swiss franc recover? Attention is turning to price movements during European trading hours.

5. 16.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely keeping a close eye on the upside potential of the euro, which has risen against the U.S. dollar

6. 15.04.2026

   Should we keep an eye on remarks by key figures in the U.S. and try to gauge the direction of currency strength?

7. 14.04.2026

   Market participants are likely watching for signs of a rebound in the Canadian dollar, which fell against the U.S. dollar following the release of employment figures

8. 13.04.2026

   Will the weakening Swiss franc continue to strengthen against the yen, or should we wait and see?

9. 10.04.2026

   Will the U.S. dollar, which has fallen against the yen, continue its downward slide, or should we wait and see how the market moves?

10. 09.04.2026

    Should we keep an eye on the upside for European currencies that have risen against the U.S. dollar?