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Will the decline in the Dollar Index weigh on the U.S. dollar, or should we wait and see?

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Will the decline in the Dollar Index weigh on the U.S. dollar, or should we wait and see?

24.10.2022

Today's Highlights
  1. U.S. Manufacturing/Services PMI
  2. Chicago Fed National Activity Index

Last weekend, the U.S. dollar weakened against the euro as the Dollar Index fell to 112.1, causing the EUR/USD pair to rise. The EUR/USD pair rose from 0.9705 to 0.9835.The rebound came after the price broke above the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. However, looking at the daily chart—a higher timeframe—the rally lacks momentum as the price fluctuates above and below the 20-period MA. Therefore, we should exercise caution in assessing whether the euro’s momentum will continue during U.S. trading hours.

European currencies rose after the October EurozoneOctober Consumer Confidence Index, released last Friday, the 21st, came in at -27.6—slightly above the market forecast of -31.1 and also higher than the previous reading of -28.8—the euro’s decline against the yen due to currency intervention was limited to approximately 4 yen.The euro/yen pair fell from 148.347 to 144.180 over the course of about two hours. During today’s Asian trading session, it has recovered to around 146.422. Since it is currently trading above the 10-day moving average on the daily chart, it will be worth watching to see if it breaks above 148.347, the level prior to the currency intervention.

Today, during European trading hours, the French Manufacturing/Services PMI will be released at 16:15, followed by the German Manufacturing/Services PMI at 16:30, the Eurozone Manufacturing/Services PMI at 17:00, and the UK Manufacturing/Services PMI at 17:30. During U.S. trading hours, the U.S.Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 21:30 U.S. time, U.S. Manufacturing/Services PMIs at 22:45, remarks by BOE Deputy Governor Ramsden at 23:15, and remarks by U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen at 24:00.We will monitor the situation cautiously to see if the decline in the Dollar Index will weigh on the US dollar’s upside.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management with a particular focus on foreign exchange markets, and he also has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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