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Will the decline in the Dollar Index weigh on the U.S. dollar, or should we wait and see?

Market Report

Will the decline in the Dollar Index weigh on the U.S. dollar, or should we wait and see?

24.10.2022

Today's Highlights
  1. U.S. Manufacturing/Services PMI
  2. Chicago Fed National Activity Index

Last weekend, the U.S. dollar weakened against the euro as the Dollar Index fell to 112.1, causing the EUR/USD pair to rise. The EUR/USD pair rose from 0.9705 to 0.9835.The rebound came after the price broke above the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. However, looking at the daily chart—a higher timeframe—the rally lacks momentum as the price fluctuates above and below the 20-period MA; therefore, we should exercise caution in assessing whether the euro’s momentum will continue into U.S. trading hours.

European currencies rose after the October EurozoneOctober Consumer Confidence Index, released last Friday, the 21st, came in at -27.6—slightly above the market forecast of -31.1 and higher than the previous reading of -28.8—the euro’s decline against the yen due to currency intervention was limited to about 4 yen.The EUR/JPY pair fell from 148.347 to 144.180 over the course of about two hours. During today’s Asian trading session, it has recovered to around 146.422. Since it is currently trading above the 10-day moving average on the daily chart, it will be interesting to see if it can break above 148.347, the level prior to the currency intervention.

Today’s schedule includes the French Manufacturing/Services PMI at 16:15 (European time), the German Manufacturing/Services PMI at 16:30, the Eurozone Manufacturing/Services PMI at 17:00, and the UK Manufacturing/Services PMI at 17:30, followed by the U.S.Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 21:30 U.S. time, U.S. Manufacturing and Services PMIs at 22:45, remarks by BOE Deputy Governor Ramsden at 23:15, and remarks by U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen at 24:00.We will monitor the situation cautiously to see if the decline in the Dollar Index will weigh on the U.S. dollar’s upside.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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