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Should We Keep a Close Eye on Currency Strength and Weakness on the Last Day of the Quarter?

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Should We Keep a Close Eye on Currency Strength and Weakness on the Last Day of the Quarter?

30.09.2022

Today's Highlights
  1. U.S. Core PCE Deflator
  2. Remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Brainard

In yesterday’s U.S. currency trading, the dollar faced resistance due to a slight pullback in the 10-year Treasury yield, causing it to decline against the euro. The EUR/USD pair rose by just under 200 pips, from 0.9634 to 0.9816. It is now trading just below the 75-period moving average on the 4-hour chart.Yesterday’s U.S. initial jobless claims came in at 213,000, in line with market expectations, but this did not provide sufficient support for the U.S. dollar. We will be closely monitoring price movements during U.S. trading hours today.

Speculation arose that the ECB would implement a significant rate hike at its next meeting after Germany’s September consumer price index, released yesterday, surged to 10.0% year-over-year—marking a sharp rise in inflation. As a result, the euro rose against the yen.The EUR/JPY pair rose by approximately 240 pips, from 139.401 to 141.723. It showed a strong upward move after breaking above the 20-day moving average (MA) on the daily chart. However, since the EUR/JPY pair is currently trading in a range-bound market lacking a clear direction on the daily chart, traders should remain cautious of random price movements triggered by economic data releases or comments from key officials.

Today’s economic indicators include UK Q2 GDP and UK Nationwide house prices at 15:00, Swiss retail sales at 15:30, and the FrenchProducer Price Index at 15:45, Swiss KOF Leading Index at 16:00, German Unemployment Rate at 16:55, UK Mortgage Approvals at 17:30, Eurozone Consumer Price Index at 18:00, U.S. Personal Income and U.S. Core PCE Deflator at 21:30,at 22:00, remarks by Fed Vice Chair Brainard; at 23:00, the U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index; at 24:00, remarks by Fed Governor Bowman; and at 29:15, remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Williams.We will be closely monitoring currency strength and weakness on this final day of the quarter.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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