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Attention on the Pound’s Downside Potential Ahead of the BOE Policy Rate Announcement

Market Report

Attention on the Pound’s Downside Potential Ahead of the BOE Policy Rate Announcement

Today's Highlights
  1. Canada: Housing Price Index
  2. Switzerland: Trade Balance

Yesterday, the U.S. dollar traded in a tight range against the euro, with the EUR/USD pair fluctuating back and forth. The pair fluctuated between 0.9965 and 1.0029; on the daily chart, it is trading just below the 20-day moving average, and on the weekly chart, it remains below the 10-day moving average.With tomorrow’s FOMC meeting approaching, the direction of the market may become clearer depending on the extent of the policy rate hike, so we plan to adopt a wait-and-see approach for the time being.

Among European currencies, the euro has been holding steady at high levels against the pound.The euro/pound pair has been consolidating within a range of 0.8747 to 0.8787 while forming higher lows, and is currently trading at a new high for the year. Since no particular divergence is visible on the daily RSI, we will be watching for developments following the announcement of the UK’s policy interest rate on the 22nd of this week.

Today, at 15:00 Asia time, Germany’s Producer Price Index and Switzerland’s trade balance will be released; at 21:30 U.S. time, Canada’s Consumer Price Index and Housing Price Index, along with U.S. housing starts and building permits, will be released; and at 26:00,remarks by ECB President Lagarde and a U.S. 20-year Treasury auction, and at 28:30, remarks by BOC Deputy Governor Buehrle. With the Bank of England set to announce its policy rate on the 22nd, we will be closely monitoring whether the pound continues to weaken against European currencies.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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